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Tim Hogan
@TimInHonolulu
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. On #Dorian, comparing the spaghetti models to the actual GOES images I don't think the storm is matching the model tracks that already had it moving north. It looks like it's moving due west. And just made land fall on Grand Bahama. It's going to be catastrophic there.
2. Here are the spaghetti models. cyclocane.com/spaghetti-mode…
3. Here is one GOES graphic.
rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online…
4. Another GOES graphic.
cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SE…

Poor #freeportbahamas.
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#Dorian #freeportbahamas

More from @TimInHonolulu see all

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Tim Hogan
@TimInHonolulu
1. #Dorian now back to Cat 3 looks to me like it may be going through an eye wall replacement cycle.

Buoy 41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah pressure falling at 1:50 a.m EDT at 29.36 inches. My plot has Dorian past the buoy.
2. I would not expect it to be falling with the storm having moved past it on the northern track.
Possible reasons:
Track change;
Intensifying;
Eye wall replacement expanding the center of the low;
or a combination.
3. Buoy FBIS1 is falling rapidly at at Rat Island just south of Charleston harbor. I think Charleston should be ready for a close call.
Read 3 tweets
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Tim Hogan
@TimInHonolulu
Trump's Texas Chain-Saw Massacre continues. 😎
Confess that I broke my rule and put on Chuck Todd for a bit and his guest @TexasTribAbby confirmed something that I tried to uncover but could not find: That the Texas US House retirees included a lot who were part of the #RNC cash raising ecosystem.
I was looking for evidence to confirm that because I think these retirements may be related to the @FBI counterintelligence investigation. IMO the June 9, 2016 Trump Tower meeting was about money, not dirt. And both Trump's and RNC's coffers filled with Rubles right after it.
Read 4 tweets
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Tim Hogan
@TimInHonolulu
1. Trump's obsession with his #Alabama gaff is defensive. He's trying to disprove he's suffering from dementia. If he just stopped tweeting he could cover it better. My uncle, who told me he did Reagan's PDB, made some comments to me in his 80's that in later years made sense.
2. Reagan was able to cover he had Alzheimer's. But President Reagan didn't rage Tweet 120 times over a holiday weekend. Trump will continue to try to cover his decline, while he and his kids rob the treasury blind.

I won't be surprised if he drops out.
3. If he can't draw crowds the primary campaign will be torture for him. He's not well. And he may be grooming Pence to feed his family's need for cash and a promise to pardon him. I thought he'd bail before the tax files were exposed. Once he is shown to be a business failure
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Scott Dimmich
@ScottDimmich
Several problems here, so here goes:
1) This "spaghetti plot" leverages model data and represents the track of #Dorian over time. Some models (the GFS/America and European/ECMWF) have ensembles or numerous iterations of the model with different initial conditions.
2) The line with shapes are true operational "models", the lines without shapes are ensembles of the American/GFS and European/ECMWF model. Notice no operational model goes through Alabama.
3) Ensembles are supposed to be noisy because they have different initial conditions.
4) Notice the American/GFS and European/ECMWF ensemble mean (APxx and EExx) tracks don't go through Alabama. When meteorologists review ensembles, 95%+ of their time with them involves reviewing the ensemble mean.
Read 9 tweets
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Leah McElrath 🏳️‍🌈
@leahmcelrath
Storm surge of about 20-25’

#Dorian
#PrayForTheBahamas
These folks are inside the attic of this home, with waves crashing in.

#Dorian
#PrayForTheBahamas
Freeport, Bahamas Airport is under water:

#Dorian
#PrayForTheBahamas
Read 9 tweets
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DocRock1007 🇺🇸
@DocRock1007
Dorian was upgraded to Category 5 status on 8 a.m. advisory Sunday. The storm is showing maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. Dorian made a very slight shift west overnight.
SC's governor has ordered a mandatory evacuation of his state's entire coast as #HurricaneDorian threatens.

Ga Mandatory evac Co's east of I-95 & I-16 will only go WB 8am Tues

Fla Mandatory: Brevard, Duval, Martin, Nassau, Palm Beach, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Volusia
"CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5" #HurricaneDorian
Wind Gusts over 220 mph
Max Sustained Winds 185 mph
Storm Surge 18-23 ft with higher destructive waves
915 MB pressure nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M…
Read 49 tweets
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DilaraEsengil 🐇🕊🇺🇸⚖️
@DilaraEsengil
#Dorian hits #Florida and what happens to be opening that weekend? Ya...

#DisneyWorld has a #StarWars attraction debut ...
And want there a character named Dorian in #StarWars ?
Read 15 tweets
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VOST Portugal 🇵🇹
@VOSTPT
ℹ️⛽️ #JáNãoDáParaAbastecer
Ok, não resistes e decides tornar-te THE magnata do combustível do teu bairro! Sabes que cuidados deves ter?
Antes de mais: só podes abastecer 60l por cada recipiente, e só podes levar 240l dentro do teu veículo ⛽️ℹ️
ℹ️⛽️ #JáNãoDáParaAbastecer
Os combustíveis libertam vapores, e dentro de um veículo podem causar uma explosão ou um incêndio.
Sabes o que é que acontece se houver uma explosão ou um incêndio dentro do teu veículo? Morres. Assim de simples. DEP. Paz à tua alma ⛽️⛽️
ℹ️⛽️ #JáNãoDáParaAbastecer Se tiveres um acidente, porque vais com pressa para mostrar todo o combustível que tens, ao pessoal do bairro, o mais provável é o teu seguro não cobrir isso. Sabes o que acontece? A tua conta bancária morre. Assim de simples. DEP. Paz à sua alma ⛽️ℹ️
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Benz Muircroft
@benzmuircroft
think MODELS #Models #fashon and #camGirls think #NXIVM & #rayChandler are many cam girls on chaterbate.com / myfreecams.com referred 2 as models? what if these kinds of sites R massive trafficking rings? think #catWalk #fashionTV (same?) sad eyes?
happy?
😠😡
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