Thread by @Raphael_Hogarth

I think the process of setting a date for this election against the Article 50 clock could be extremely contentious. Some crystal ball gazing on out this will play out. If you dislike labyrinthine parliamentary Kremlinology, look away now.
1/

Note: the date of an election is not set by Parliament. It is determined by a Royal Proclamation, which the Queen issues on the advice of the Prime Minister. See this one form 2017: thegazette.co.uk/notice/2766748
2/

There are two worlds. In one, the anti-no deal statute passes. In that world, it is clearly in PM's interests for the GE to happen before October 31. That way, he can stand on a platform of repealing the anti-no deal legislation, and of keeping his “Oct 31, do or die” pledge.
3/

(In reality, supposing a GE were scheduled for (say) 17 October, I think it is absurd to suggest that he could negotiate a deal/get the implementing legislation passed in the two weeks to Halloween. But it would not be the first time a politician had said something absurd.)
4/

In the world of anti-no-deal legislation passing, when would Boris’s opponents want a GE to be? Electorally, it must be better for opposition parties if it's *after* October 31. That would prompt more Tory voters to vote Brexit Party (as Boris would have broken “do or die”).
5/

But from a purely "anti-no-deal" perspective, it doesn’t much matter when the election is, so long as it’s before the clock times out. So, either *before* October 31, or *after* the PM has been compelled by the legislation to agree an extension.
6/

I think if anti-no-deal leg passes, then we'll get GE before Oct 31. HMG's interests don't clash hard with the anti-no-dealers’. (They might want to legislate to prevent no deal even if BoJo wins, but there’s no point: if he gets a majority, he can overturn the Act anyway)
7/

What about a world in which, though the GE motion passes, the anti-no deal legislation does not pass? Number 10 has been *saying* in briefings that it will set the election date for after Oct 31, in order to keep the “do or die” pledge.
8/

I’m extremely sceptical that Number 10 actually wants that. It will be very hard for an incumbent government to win an election at a time when people can’t buy the fresh fruit they want and there are pictures of queues at Dover on the 10 o’clock news every day.
9/

If I’m right, then Number 10 will set the election for *before* Oct 31. Again, that lines up with the interests of the anti-no-dealers.
10/

But, assume that Number 10 actually does want what it says: a post-Oct 31 election. In this world, anti-no-dealers are not indifferent. So what can they do to stop the PM from postponing the GE until it is too late?
11/

They can refuse to vote for the GE motion unless HMG gives a commitment that the GE will be before Oct 31. But HMG could renege on any such commitment. Alternatively, they could attempt to pass a statute saying the GE will be on a date before Oct 31, notwithstanding FTPA.
12/

(Note, though, that such a bill would likely require “Queen’s Consent” [as well as Royal Assent] because it affects a royal prerogative power, and HMG could advise the Queen to refuse.)
13/

So really, MPs need to first work out what their plan is for the anti-no-deal leg, and what they think will happen with it. Their strategy for the GE motion depends on that. /ends