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A few things for web developers about IDC's recent report on smartphone shipment volumes: idc.com/getdoc.jsp?con…
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First, if you're a web developer, you are probably reading this on an Apple device. In both computers and smartphones *Apple is a niche player*.
10% of smartphone volume, down from ~12% this time last year. Compare that with ~7% share in computers: cultofmac.com/618730/q1-2019…
10% of smartphone volume, down from ~12% this time last year. Compare that with ~7% share in computers: cultofmac.com/618730/q1-2019…
Second, *most* new smartphones are *not* flagship devices -- Apple breaks the mould here as they start at a (much) higher price, but even they sell many more XRs than XSs: gizmochina.com/2019/09/06/iph…
Next, nearly all new Androids are slower than *any* new iOS device:
On the falling volume thing, this is a *good* sign AFAICT. Up until now, the defining property of the aggregate performance curve for mobile has been defined not by the high-end getting faster, but by the low-end getting cheaper & outselling the high-end 3:1 or more.
Falling overall volume signals that we're getting closer to saturation; that folks who are in the market for a smartphone for the first time is a falling fraction of the total market.
When you're shopping for your *second* phone, you really have a sense for why speed matters.
When you're shopping for your *second* phone, you really have a sense for why speed matters.
We've heard this in user studies: folks holding out to upgrade until they can afford a mid-tier device, even though they can afford a new (and much better) low-end device than the one they purchased as their first.
Quality matters, but only once basic need has been met.
Quality matters, but only once basic need has been met.
Android was *90%* of shipments in Q2.
Let that sink in.
How much of your focus is on Android?
Let that sink in.
How much of your focus is on Android?
The web took off on desktop because we got a competitive-enough platform plus a surplus of CPU (for most people) and enough network bandwidth to make sipping UI through a straw work passably.
If we're getting to device saturation, that's a hopeful sign for the web.
If we're getting to device saturation, that's a hopeful sign for the web.
Why? Because we'll start to see the low-end start to climb the performance curve. Current web developer practice is 3-10x too expensive for mobile today. If we can cut our costs to the user by 50 or 80% and CPUs 5x in the next few years, we could actually compete.
Practically, that still means you need to target something like the Moto G4 for the next few years. But you might not need to aim lower than that (as I've feared since '16).
That leaves the "competitive enough platform" and "good enough network" parts to worry about. Modulo Apple and FB fundamentally undermining the web, we're on a good trajectory re: capabilities. Networks: IDK, but reason to hope.
