Profile picture
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
That is not the only difference between the two companies' approaches to polling - @drjennings , Mark Pickup and I took a comprehensive look at pollsters' choices and their efects here:
sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/hou…
@drjennings It is also unwise to focus on leads rather than shares as all polls are subject to error and the error on lead estimates is much bigger (because it is the difference between two estimates, both with error ranges)
@drjennings Turnout estimation is certainly once challenge, but so is false recall. There is suggestive evidence that many of those who voted Labour in 2017 now claim they did not. Correcting for that reduces Labour's estimated share. Suspect Owen will be less likely to focus on that issue.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Rob Ford
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @robfordmancs see all

Profile picture
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Little trivia nugget from "Brexitland" as I work on the final chapter - one of David Cameron's less discussed legacies is the "A-list" policy which encouraged the selection of women and ethnic minority candidates in safe Con seats. Our current Home Sec and Chancellor were both
...selected for safe Con seats after the intro of this policy. Thus it may be said that Cameron's efforts to diversify his party have, in the longer run, played an important role in the rise of Britain's first ever ethnic minority Chancellor, and both of its first EM Home Secs
Experiments by my co-author @smthgsmthg suggest this was a good electoral strategy - white voters given information about growing diversity of Con MPs had more positive views of the party relative to people not given such info.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
An analysis which combines two personal bogeymen - one dimensional politics (everything *must* be about economic left-right) and false consciousness ("if voters support something that seems obviously wrong to me, it must be because they have been misled).
Simon is right that Ed Miliband didn't fail in 2015 because the public was too right wing on econ issues to elect him. He failed because many of the voters he needed weren't voting on economic issues at all - a problem Ed M recognised (but couldn't address) but Simon just ignores
English politics is dominated by an identity conflict (Brexit) while Scottish politics is completely dominated by two identity conflicts (Brexit and IndyRef). Perhaps not everything is only or mainly about economics, for at least some voters?
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
People keep raising the idea of Johnson getting another EU state to veto the extension request. I don't see how it could ever be in their interest. Firstly, they'd annoy most of the other EU members, on behalf of a country that's leaving 1/?
Secondly, they would then share in the blame for the no deal Brexit crisis - who wants that?
Thirdly, one of the biggest delusions with "no deal" is this weird idea that it is an end point. It isn't. Its just the start of a new, more chaotic round of crisis negotiations 2/?
Which EU leader would honestly want to kick the negotiation process from orderly to disorderly, annoy their fellow member states and isolate themselves in the process?
Fourth, there is literally nothing I can think of that Johnson could offer in exchange.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
chelsea
@northgalis
it’s Friday night and we’re living it up watching my favorite movie of all time
I don’t know much about Star Wars ships but I like that the resistance ships look like fragile precious eggs, maybe one of the richest symbols you could use. Round and friendly..
The first spoken words on screen (and don’t you for a second think that Rian wasted them on something unrelated to the core theme of the movie) — is Kaydel (a woman, the feminine) urging a Mustachioed Man to abandon weapons in order to save people 👀
Read 317 tweets
Profile picture
Gary Holland 🇺🇸 ⭐️⭐️⭐️ 🇺🇸
@gholland04
!!DECODE (07/03/19 7:33 PM EST)

DECODE 07/03/2019 — Sara Carter Tweets

Time to Buckle Down, Listen Up and Stand Ready to Fight for Our Way of Life and Traditions

Have a Happy, Fun, and Safe Independence Day

#Qanon
@realDonaldTrump

...
1.
Sara Carter Tweets

Here we find …

TimeStamp 2:00, 4:00
Time Delta 2h 0m
Caps Gematria Values: 618, 772
Keywords:
5
Activities
Forth of July
Traditions

...
2.
The Caps Gematria Value 618
Leads us to Q-Drop 618

Here we find …

Title:
19 Good Reporters at Risk

>>175260
Is [19] a marker for FBI?

...
Read 488 tweets
Profile picture
Ramaswamy Iyer 🇮🇳
@iyer_rn
@kanimozhi @keralaCastro @anilindian @Kuvalayamala @HKupdate @girishalva @chathootti @prafullaketkar @excomradekerala @Prof_Hariom @ranganaathan @jspandey_ @SaveSabrimala @ensine @sagenaradamuni @MaheshJoshi_MJ @jsaideepak @advmonikaarora @ShefVaidya @sgurumurthy @rvaidya2000 @RajivMessage @HinduAmericans @Swamy39 @vhskerala @mohandastg @TVMohandasPai @Amritanandamayi @SriSri @mariawirth1 @sankrant @Koenraad_Elst @davidfrawleyved @fgautier26 @narendramodi @Janamejayan @rishibagree @DrGPradhan @IndianInterest @anuraag_saxena @AAOLion @anujdhar @Chandrabosebjp @MissionNetaji @PanickarS @majorgauravarya @GeneralBakshi @daljeet1954 @MajorPoonia @TrueIndology Remembering “Thamizh Thatha”. The grandfather of Tamil Literature on his Jayanti Today.
bharathgyanblog.wordpress.com/2018/04/28/dr-…
@kanimozhi @keralaCastro @anilindian @Kuvalayamala @HKupdate @girishalva @chathootti @prafullaketkar @excomradekerala @Prof_Hariom @ranganaathan @jspandey_ @SaveSabrimala @ensine @sagenaradamuni @MaheshJoshi_MJ @jsaideepak @advmonikaarora @ShefVaidya @sgurumurthy @rvaidya2000 @RajivMessage @HinduAmericans @Swamy39 @vhskerala @mohandastg @TVMohandasPai @Amritanandamayi @SriSri @mariawirth1 @sankrant @Koenraad_Elst @davidfrawleyved @fgautier26 @narendramodi @Janamejayan @rishibagree @DrGPradhan @IndianInterest @anuraag_saxena @AAOLion @anujdhar @Chandrabosebjp @MissionNetaji @PanickarS @majorgauravarya @GeneralBakshi @daljeet1954 @MajorPoonia @TrueIndology Remembering Chatrapati #ShivajiMaharaj who brought #Hindu revival in the 17th century which ultimately liberated India from Islamic rule on his Jayanti Today. indiafacts.org/shivaji-and-th…
@kanimozhi @keralaCastro @anilindian @Kuvalayamala @HKupdate @girishalva @chathootti @prafullaketkar @excomradekerala @Prof_Hariom @ranganaathan @jspandey_ @SaveSabrimala @ensine @sagenaradamuni @MaheshJoshi_MJ @jsaideepak @advmonikaarora @ShefVaidya @sgurumurthy @rvaidya2000 @RajivMessage @HinduAmericans @Swamy39 @vhskerala @mohandastg @TVMohandasPai @Amritanandamayi @SriSri @mariawirth1 @sankrant @Koenraad_Elst @davidfrawleyved @fgautier26 @narendramodi @Janamejayan @rishibagree @DrGPradhan @IndianInterest @anuraag_saxena @AAOLion @anujdhar @Chandrabosebjp @MissionNetaji @PanickarS @majorgauravarya @GeneralBakshi @daljeet1954 @MajorPoonia Remembering Guruji(MS Golwalkar) the 2nd Sarsangachalak of @RSSorg on his Jayanti Today. organiser.org//Encyc/2018/5/…
Read 934 tweets
Profile picture
Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Yonatan Zunger 🔥
@yonatanzunger
This is something I've been expecting for a while, but not quite so suddenly and sharply: privacy is becoming enough of an issue that people are questioning its violation as a business model.
washingtonpost.com/technology/201…
Interesting contrast: FB lost 19% of its value (!!!) after its earnings call, but Google jumped a percent after its call just a few days earlier. I think this means people are recognizing a difference in the two companies' approaches.
While people like to say "oh, they're all big companies, they're all after your data, they're all bad," there are profound differences between the companies' attitudes and business models.
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Connor Ratliff
@connorratliff
Almost all of the Road Runner cartoons are available via the @BoomerangToons app.

I subscribed for $5 & decided I'm gonna watch & tweet about 'em all in chronological order, even the later, terrible ones, for which I have an irrational affection.

Here we go.
#BeepBeep
#MeepMeep
Boomerang lists them alphabetically not chronologically so Chuck Jones masterpieces sit side-by-side with 1960s atrocities (& later 'revival' attempts.)

I am going to start at the beginning. I will also be including Wile E. Coyote/Bugs Bunny & Ralph Wolf/Sam Sheepdog shorts, FYI
September 17, 1949: "Fast And Furry-ous"

Chuck Jones intended this short to be a parody of cat & mouse "chase" cartoons. Instead, he accidentally created the definitive chase cartoon series of all time.
Read 1189 tweets

Trending hashtags

#BjpManifesto2019 #ModiReturns #FearTheBeard #ModiSpeaksToBharat #JeetegaToModiHi #Malta #IndiaStrikesBack #litigation #FakeNews #KumbhMela #savesabarimala #LAWYERED #NamoAgain #ApnaVoteSahiHathMeDijiye #ThoughtsAndPrayers #LalBahadurShastri #NetajiMystery #RahulGandhiwayanad #Colours #JitegaModiJitegaBharat #Delve #WomensDay #Kummanam4Kerala #Karnataka #VoteMaaDi
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!