Thread by @unseen1_unseen

Best "recession" ever. Just last week Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced their:

Shipping index jumped 7pts
Employment index jumped 12.2pts
Prices paid index jumped 20.2pts
Prices received index jumped 7.8pts
Future employment index jumped 5.6pts

Philly FED index also stated that:

Future general activity index dropped 11.8 pts
New orders index dropped one 1pt
Current general activity index only dropped by 4.8 pts (less than expected)

In other words, Companies are seeing a drop in profit margins (prices paid vs prices received), they continue to hire, current demand is high. Yet, they believe the media and expect a "recession" going forward. A "recession" that isn't being seen by their current numbers.

It is an interesting phenomena. The decision makers are trusting the media more so than their current numbers. Meanwhile, the people continue to spend and therefore companies must continue to hire and produce to meet the current demand. This is creating surprise to the upside.

These surprises to the upside causes the companies and wall street to always be one step behind. This means that things like inventories are not being built up which means that a recession is less likely as overproduction is not an issue.

Because the fake media is pushing a narrative that is not inline with reality (recession) business leaders are making faulty decisions. They are preparing for a recession that isn't here and are caught flat footed.

The belief has always been that the fake media can talk the country into a recession and the economy is based on emotions. We are seeing in real life what happens when more than half of the population(the demand side) ignores the fake media to make their CURRENT decisions.

While, the side that's responsible for the supply is largely listening to the fake media to make their FUTURE decisions. The supply group, trapped inside the fake media's bubble, is continually being hit upside the head with the reality 2x4.

This makes it LESS LIKELY a recession will occur. It's a negative feedback loop.

"Listen to the fake media, make reasonable decisions based on that information, get negatively hit by the reality 2x4"

Negative feedback loops causes output from the system to limit future production by the system.

In this negative feedback loop. The more the fake media screams about a coming recession that isn't there, the less likely that recession is too occur.

When the "Boy who Cried Wolf" did what he did, he created a negative feedback loop. The more he cried that there was a wolf when there wasn't one, the less likely the town's folk would answer the call that a wolf was attacking. This is now being repeated in the business world.

The more the " Fake Media cries Recession" when there isn't one, the less likely people will react to the fear of a recession and those that do react as well as those that continue to cry "recession" will have negative consequences.

Just some of the negative consequences that are being seen by those listening to the fake cry of recession...

Higher wages as businesses are forced to rapidly hire people to meet unexpected demand.

Loss sales as inventories are too low to meet demand.

Higher prices for inputs as those companies that waited to buy raw resources are forced to buy needed inputs quickly.

Lower profit margins as their costs increase and they are unable to pass along the costs to consumers because many companies didn't listen to fake media.

Loss of power by the media to set the narrative.

Loss of gains in the stock market as investors who listened to the fake media are on the wrong side of the trade.

Loss of votes to those politicians pushing the recession narrative.

There are many other negatives.

While this fake narrative is creating a negative feedback loop for those listening to the fake media; it's also creating a positive feedback loop for those not listening. This is accelerating the loss of power of the fake media.

Best "recession" ever