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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
, 8 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
1. The #IPCC has released another Special Report, this time on the Ocean & Cryosphere in a Changing Climate #SROCC.

Oceans (top) & mountain & polar regions (bottom) all have pretty severe impacts.

About the only benefit is for Arctic shipping & kelp!

ipcc.ch/srocc/home/
2. The report's headlines focus on RCP8.5 (red) versus RCP2.6 (blue), "reflecting the available literature".

Reality will lie somewhere in between these two extremes, but important to highlight that changes relative to the recent situation (1986-2005) are already extreme...
3. "RCP8.5 is a high GHG emission scenario in the absence of [climate] policies... Compared to the total set of RCPs, RCP8.5 corresponds to the pathway with the highest GHG emissions."

True, but RCP8.5 is an extreme baseline & many think implausible...
carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-…
4. At current warming (grey band) we have as good as lost warm water corals, kelp forests will go at about 2°C warming (except those in the Arctic), & risks increase as we pass 1.5°C, then 2°C, etc.

A now classic #IPCC figure showing that risks increase with temperatures...
5. But, "sandy beaches" as a category? I imagine a sea level rise & storm surge impact, that will wash the sand to a different location?

In any case, alert the Australian PM about this @ScottMorrisonMP, as this should be a no-brainer to get Australia to act.
6. Sea level rise "historical centennial events (HCEs)" used to happen once a century, but in many locations (dots) will become once a year event.
7. Sea levels will continue to rise from thermal expansion, & increasingly, glacier & ice sheet loss. It will be necessary to adapt or relocate (retreat) to "respond" to sea level rise (interesting change of language to use respond, but seems a weak phrasing to me)
8. I have not yet read all the (relevant for me) details, but I will certainly start with the @CarbonBrief summary as that is written in a language a normal scientist can understand!
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-th…

/END
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More from @Peters_Glen see all

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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
1. "[C]ombining emissions reductions & negative emissions into a single target of reaching “net-zero” may create problems. These could include delayed emissions cuts, but also insufficient focus on developing negative emissions technologies." @mclaren_erc
carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the…
2. A net-zero target contains two related, but different responses:
* The first is to stop releasing GHGs in the first place, by cutting emissions
* The second is to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere using “negative emissions technologies” (NETs)

Figure: cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
3. "Our stakeholder workshops highlighted huge uncertainties in how – or in some cases, whether – different NETs might work technically, economically and politically."
Read 8 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
India has pledge to reduce its emission intensity (CO₂/GDP) 33-35% from 2005 levels by 2030, leading to a big rise in CO₂ emissions by 2030.

In context, 1.5°C requires a 45% reduction in CO₂ emissions from 2010 levels by 2030, globally!

cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/cicer…
1/
Yes, India has much lower per capita CO₂ emissions than many countries & is below the world average. But, if 1.5°C or 2°C is the goal, then even countries with low per capita emissions have to reduce emissions...

Yes, US, EU, etc have to do more, so does India, China, etc

2/
Despite impressive growth in solar & wind in India, see lines at the bottom of figure, the Indian energy system is dominated by coal, oil, & biomass.

Coal is still growing strongly in India, despite claims that Indian coal has come to an end.

3/
Read 4 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Problemet er at myndighetene i mange land mer enn gjerne subsidierer ny fornybar energi, men de er ikke like villige til å ta gamle fossile energikilder av markedet
klassekampen.no/article/201909…
Det er et spørsmål om glasset er halvfullt eller halvtomt. Forhåpentlig kommer fornybar energi til å erstatte fossilt brensel, men problemet er at vi ikke får på plass politikk for å ta fossil energi ut av ligningen
Selv om de rike landene kutter alle utslipp innen ti år, til 2030, noe de aller fleste vil si er helt umulig, selv da må utviklingslandene gjøre mye mer enn det de allerede gjør
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Kees van der Leun
@Sustainable2050
Reading IPCC's Special Report on The Ocean and Cryosphere
in a Changing Climate (#SROCC), published last week. You can find it here: ipcc.ch/srocc/home/
@IPCC_CH Less known than ice loss:
Snow cover is already shrinking too.
"Arctic June snow cover extent on land declined by 13.4 ± 5.4% per decade from 1967 to 2018, a total loss of approximately 2.5 million km2, predominantly due to surface air temperature increase (high confidence).
In nearly all high mountain areas, the depth, extent and duration of snow cover have declined over recent decades, especially at lower elevation (high confidence)."
Read 17 tweets
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Glen Wright 🌊
@MarinePolicy
Just finished reading the 45-page summary of the @IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere (#SROCC). Full report is over 1,000 pages and cites 700+ scientific papers. Here's a short(ish) summary of the summary:
The #SROCC) follows two other recent special reports:
- The @IPCC report on Climate Change and Land
- The @IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity

report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROC…
ipbes.net/global-assessm…
ipcc.ch/report/srccl/
The summary covers observed changes and impacts, projected changes and risks, and responses. It uses the usual language of confidence levels, e.g. "virtually certain" (99-100%), "very likely" (90-100%), "likely" (66-100%. I'll focus on conclusions in these three categories.
Read 27 tweets
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PeterKuipersMunneke
@PKuipersMunneke
Het @IPCC_CH Special Report on the Oceans and Cryosphere (#SROCC) is openbaar en een schat aan informatie over de meest recente wetenschappelijke inzichten over oceanen en de bevroren wereld: ipcc.ch/srocc/home/

Wat mij opvalt: 1/n
@IPCC_CH 1) Zeespiegelschattingen tot 2100 zijn naar boven bijgesteld (+4 cm naar 39 cm bij succesvol klimaatbeleid, +11 cm naar 84 cm zonder beleid (RCP8.5)). De kans op extreme zeespiegelstijging door instorten van delen Antarctica is nog steeds niet main-stream 2/n
@IPCC_CH 2) De zeespiegel stijgt onmiskenbaar steeds sneller.
1,4 mm/yr tussen 1901 en 1990
2,1 mm/yr tussen 1970 en 2015
3,2 mm/yr tussen 1993 en 2015
3,6 mm/yr tussen 2005 en 2015
Nu dus ruim 2,5 x zo snel als vorige eeuw 3/n
Read 7 tweets
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Thomas Binder, MD ⏳
@Thomas_Binder
1/14
The sun has always been the best antidepressant. It is especially potent against (un)consciously (agitated-depressive) science-denying sun-, cosmic rays-, clouds- & ocean- (low-pass filter of the climate system because of their heat content) deniers in #IPCC.
#IPCCCO2Hoax
2/14
An insight into the agitated-depressive world of a physicist seeing CO2 as "inevitable byproduct of combustion" and not as the source of life
3/14
While (agitated-depressive) science-denying sun-, cosmic rays-, clouds- and ocean-deniers such as these Swiss #IPCC-"scientists" are still predicting the end of all glaciers in Switzerland by 2100...
Read 15 tweets
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Dr Jane Zelikova 👩🏻‍💻🐜🌾🌎
@j_zelikova
The #IPCC special report on the land sector is out.

It's the culmination of the hard work of 107 experts from 52 countries.

I've got some big takeaways. Buckle in – it's going to be a long thread.

Some quick background:

Land and ocean warm at different rates (thank you @RARohde) for the great figure.
Land is both a carbon source and sink. The balance between the strength of sources and sinks determines overall impact of land on GHG emissions. Humans already use a LOT of land (almost ¾ of all ice-free terrestrial surface, according to the IPCC graphic below).
Read 24 tweets
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Stephen Cornelius
@SteveJCornelius
Takeaways from the #IPCC Special Report on #ClimateChange & Land (#SRCCL). A thread.

1) We use a lot of land (much unsustainably)

Humans directly affect ~72% of "global ice-free land surface" & all is impacted by climate change (e.g. through warming & more intense extremes

1/9
2) A two-way interaction

Our use of land drives #ClimateChange ("agriculture, forestry and other land use" are ~23% of global man-made GHG emissions) & climate change adds stresses so worsens existing risks (e.g. biodiversity & degradation from extremes events)

2/9 #IPCC #SRCCL
3) As well as being an emission source, land is a sink

Photosynthesis draws down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and fixes it in plants (and soils). Overall the land is a net sink of ~29% of total human-induced CO2 emissions.

3/9 #IPCC #SRCCL
Read 9 tweets

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