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@jonworth is always interesting but I think the “no deal = end of Tories’ election chances assumption” overstated.
In essence there’s 2 big factors that damage a govt fighting a GE post “no deal”
1. Immediate chaos
2. Economic cost
But politically these can be mitigated..
In essence there’s 2 big factors that damage a govt fighting a GE post “no deal”
1. Immediate chaos
2. Economic cost
But politically these can be mitigated..
2/
The immediate chaos will in no way be laid at the door of the govt by any media source sympathetic to Brexit. Indeed knowing British culture the s/t chaos will be spun as a stoic British virtue a la WWII.
So long as drugs/req food gets thru the govt might actually gain votes
The immediate chaos will in no way be laid at the door of the govt by any media source sympathetic to Brexit. Indeed knowing British culture the s/t chaos will be spun as a stoic British virtue a la WWII.
So long as drugs/req food gets thru the govt might actually gain votes
3/
The economic cost is 2part: long & short term. Nobody in the midst of no deal brexit will talk about longterm cost. Even remainers. It will be full on 24 hour rolling coverage from Dover & Waitrose running low on lettuce.
Which leaves the short term cost..
The economic cost is 2part: long & short term. Nobody in the midst of no deal brexit will talk about longterm cost. Even remainers. It will be full on 24 hour rolling coverage from Dover & Waitrose running low on lettuce.
Which leaves the short term cost..
4/
The Tory leaning media will give govt a complete free pass on any expense on Brexit even if it’s £100bn. And as I tell my students regularly, Brexit might, counterintuitivly, actually increase nominal GDP in short term due to the massive mitigation cost injected into economy.
The Tory leaning media will give govt a complete free pass on any expense on Brexit even if it’s £100bn. And as I tell my students regularly, Brexit might, counterintuitivly, actually increase nominal GDP in short term due to the massive mitigation cost injected into economy.
5/ - in other words -
Don’t count on the fear of immediate chaos & massive economic cost deterring Boris Johnson from going thru with no deal even if he faces a general election within mere weeks of it.
He could, counterintuitively, still win it.
Don’t count on the fear of immediate chaos & massive economic cost deterring Boris Johnson from going thru with no deal even if he faces a general election within mere weeks of it.
He could, counterintuitively, still win it.
