Thread by @nicktolhurst

++BREAKING++

Michael Gove has, over the last 5 days, “taken soundings” from cabinet members & a number of backbench MPs on replacing Boris Johnson if he “is forced to resign” over Brexit extension or legal issues surrounding it.

Getting more info now on the internal struggle in UK government now.

It seems that Gove is working with Cabinet Members who are seeking to oust Dominic Cummings from his role in govt.

Plan is to oust Cummings within weeks if not days.

The Gove team are still the Leavers but are calling themselves “the Pragmatists”. Looking to feed off widespread concern both of Cummings strategy as well as the “more unedifying mood music” round the Cummings/Johnson strategy.

Ebbing support for Cummings within party now.

Don’t kid yourselves it’s a “remainer coup” - it isn’t.

But it does:

1. Show present govt utterly dysfunctional/divided
2. Open up possibilities for opposition/remainers to exploit

While Cummings deeply unpopular with Tory MPs, there’s also a growing rcognition - not just frm more soft/remain ToryMPs - that Boris Johnson may not be the electoral asset they thought in the summer.

It seems Tory internal polling suggests voters want “brexit with competence”.

(Cont)

Internal Tory polling shows Johnson now toxic with young/London/Liberals (this was known) but that his image now going into decline in “Brexit friendly” northern/midland seats, too.

IOW internal polling shows brexit alone not enough for Tories - need to show competence.

This is entirely logical as in summer Boris Johnson was still regarded by many as the “fun” liberating part of Brexit in contradiction to Theresa May.

However as Brexit nears, it seems even leave voters are placing greater premium on “competence” - where Johnson scores badly.

At the risk of disappointing remainers this doesn’t necessarily show Tory (& potential Tory) voters rejecting Johnson cause they want to cancel Brexit - but it does show concern that Brexit may be “mismanaged” as the reality nears...

If I were leading remainer strategy & looking at similar internal polling (they all get it) - it looks like remain groups need to change strategy from going after “secrecy” of Brexit planning to going after “competency”

Indeed it’s surprising why this wasn’t done before.

+BREAKING+

Dominic Cummings ousted Alex Crowley - Boris Johnson’s longtime aide who's worked previously on Johnson's Tory leadership campaign, two mayoral campaigns and wrote a book about him - in a dramatic internal struggle at Nr. 10.

Its getting a little hard to keep up with all the news & briefing & counter briefing coming in now.

This follows on from Cummings sidelining Eddie Lister, Johnson’s former chief of staff, Lynton Crosby, his former election strategist, while Will Walden, his former communications director, who helped Johnson on his leadership campaign, has already also been ousted.

In other words the entire team from Boris Johnson's supposed "one nation Conservative London Mayoral years" have either been ousted or completely sidelined by Dominic Cummings.

UK govt basically a completely Cummings/Leave operation now.