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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
.@GregHands: “I would be very doubtful that the UK govt would propose customs checks on the island of Ireland either at the border or a few miles away.” #CPC19

Nonetheless it seems they have done so...
Hands: “I believe we can still get a deal and leave by October 31st.”
Very few others privately do.
Hands: “I think if there another vote tomorrow on Theresa May’s deal it would probably fall by a bigger margin than it did on the third time of asking in March.”
Greg Hands laying out a convincing case of a complex set of “alternative arrangements” for Irish border which sounds to me like it might be ready in about twenty years time.
Ex Tory MP Richard Graham says Theresa May made “huge mistake” in creating a Department to oversee Brexit.
I’m at an event which is predicated on the idea of finding ways through Brexit (especially via a deal) and the more the panellists speak about how possible it is the less convinced I am there will be one.
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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
NEW: I understand that Special Constables in Derbyshire Police have been asked for their availability to fill in for regular police officers between 24th October and 15th November. Am told it's in case regulars are needed to deal with social unrest created by Brexit.
Leave for regular officers had been cancelled for this period all ready. Suspect similar measures being taken in other forces. Source tells me specials being asked to fill in for regulars in this way is very unusual.
Superintendent Steve Point : “As a force we are ensuring contingency plans are in place in preparation for October 31st..."
Read 5 tweets
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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
No longer wanted in Downing St: a ditch
The potential latest in a long series of constitutional climbdowns from the govt.
As I wrote yesterday the EU is certain an extension is coming with elections soon afterwards. Given Johnson’s proposals are so suboptimal for them, even compared to May’s deal, there is every incentive for them to sit, wait and bide their time.
Read 5 tweets
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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
I suspect this will cause a lot of excitement today but end with little more than a whimper.

Stewart voted for Brexit. Three times. He still wants a deal.

He now wants to be Mayor of London.

Over to you @SadiqKhan...
This will damage Shaun Bailey’s campaign a bit but in the current climate, the chances of a Conservative winning London are extremely slim anyway. Many talk of Boris Johnson’s electoral stardust in winning the city. Maybe- but he wouldn’t win now.
Also, difficult to see what Stewart’s brand of moderate centrism finds as its enemy in the London race. There’s no Johnson boogy man to run against. Khan is hardly an extreme Corbynista. What exactly does he run on?
Read 3 tweets

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CER
@CER_EU
Standing room only for the @CER_EU fringe event at the Conservative Party conference - "What route out of the Brexit maze?" with @cbicarolyn @RichardGrahamUK &
@GregHandsMP, chaired by @CER_Grant
@cbicarolyn @RichardGrahamUK @CER_Grant Very doubtful the UK govt proposes customs checks on the island of Ireland, either on the border or behind it - best route is to use alternative arrangements, @GregHands tells @CER_EU fringe at Conservative Party conference
@cbicarolyn @RichardGrahamUK @CER_Grant @GregHands Alternative Arrangements does not require new technology, everything is in operation somewhere around the world – recognise there will be costs involved, but they are not huge/manageable, @GregHands tells @CER_EU fringe
Read 12 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
UK freight forwarders/ brokers cannot recruit #customs specialists in sufficient numbers. The same way UK Gov cannot hire customs clerks, customs officials and the 500 border force officers Sajid Javid promised /1
First, as many incl @LeftPeggers pointed out, we don't have them in the UK (#customs is country specific, to a certain degree even within the EU, also not sure EU customs ppl would want to come work in the UK). /2
@LeftPeggers Second, customs is not something you can learn from a book as a lot of it requires direct experience. It's very different from other areas of tax where most rules are written down clearly (which still of course require direct experience)- customs rules are ambiguous at best /3
Read 5 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Karen Wheeler (formerly of UK govt #Border Delivery group) made some interesting points at @ifgevents #IfGBrexit today.*
Here's a v.brief summary.
1/5
*[so did @AllieRenison and @Lorand_Bartels too, you won't be surprised to hear]
She said UK govt has been trying to guide UK businesses in prep for #NoDeal but particularly difficult for NI.
'Cos v. unclear how IRL wd deal with border.

Without knowing arrangements on the other side, it is extremely difficult for cross-border traders to prepare/comply.

2/5
This leaves NI businesses at a heavy disadvantage in a No Deal, being only prepared for the UK side of trade.

Worsened, she noted, by high number of small businesses in cross-border trade.

Unilateral policy of the UK for land border in a No Deal thus 'somewhat difficult'.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
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CSM
@usacsmret
Report: The Migrant Crisis Is Earning Billions For Smugglers thefederalist.com/2019/04/24/ill…
A new report from the RAND Corporation found that smugglers and cartels earned as much as $2.3 billion from Central American migrants in 2017.
Migrants generally pay smugglers and smuggling networks anywhere from $2,000 to $7,000 per person to get to America. A portion of that money ends up in the hands of Mexican drug cartels—TCOs—even though the cartels don’t directly participate in the smuggling.
Read 10 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
Important. French #customs announce a new smart border in Calais and Channel Tunnel in prep for #Briext.

What is it, what it definitely isn’t and what’s smart about it? /1

douane.gouv.fr/articles/a1617…
It’s a way to speed up the checks in case of #nodeal. On the way in and out of France (exports/imports). Similar to how transit procedure works currently /2
What it is?
1) Way to submit customs docs online before arriving at the border
2) Hopefully, a way to speed up border/customs checks
1) Different lanes for vehicles that need/don’t need checks

/3
Read 10 tweets
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Daithi "beelzebub" Bhard
@daithibhard
#aras18 is tomorrow and we have a outcome which seems preordained. We've seen a script play out for the last few years where the campaign ends with a surprise upset that seems like it could be written for the screen either as a triller or farce.
But as we see either side of the water, the campaign isn't the end. The consequences of protest votes born out of frustration in the US and UK have been catastrophe. Americas very democracy becomes more eroded with each day and the very existence of the UK is now in question.
The same frustrations exist in Ireland. We want homes and opportunities denied to us by a system which seems to be built to favour the few over the many and we want to thumb an elite who continue to enable it even when it is clearly against the national interest to do so.
Read 8 tweets

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