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, 3 tweets, 2 min read
1/ "How many customers am I going to acquire? How long are they going to stay with me? How many orders are they going to place and how much are they going to spend? All of that trickles its way down into a very standard DCF (discounted cash flow) model." knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/findin…
2/ "In SaaS setting, it might make a lot of sense to spend a very large amount of money to acquire a customer [*if*] you know that if you bring them in the door, you’ll make many multiples of that even though, on a GAAP basis, you will be unprofitable."
zuora.com/2018/12/04/sub…
3/ Damodaran: “The problem in valuation is not that there are not enough models to value an asset, it is that there are too many."

F&M: "Valuing Subscription-based Businesses..."It is clear that the discounted cash flow approach is the most appropriate." poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?I…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Whenever you read or hear the phrase "losing money" you should ask yourself: what does this person mean?

1. GAAP earnings?
2. Cash flow?
3. Unit economics?

The phrase is so unspecific that it should not be used unless money in physical form is lost.

cnbc.com/2019/10/17/air…
"investors have grown wary of cash-burning companies"

Is Airbnb really "burning cash" given:

"Airbnb has over $3B in cash on its balance sheet as of Thursday [and] also has a $1B line of credit that it hasn’t used."

Revenue isn't profit, isn't cash flow, isn't GAAP earnings!
Airbnb could be cash flow positive and yet have a GAAP loss. Or not.

Airbnb could have positive unit economics and yet have a GAAP loss. Or not.

It depends. The only thing known for sure is that the phrase "losing money" has negative value. Avoid and be wary when it is used.
Read 13 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
An operator that stops reselling content is free from the "wholesale transfer pricing power" (see my previous tweetstorm) of content owners and can instead focus on service differentiation at the network function level (encryption, security, network acceleration and other CNFs).
25iQuiz: Why would the significant size of cable operators referred to by John Malone years ago no longer be enough to offset wholesale transfer pricing power of content owners? What changed? google.com/amp/s/25iq.com… Being an OTT provider requires direct customer relationships.
25iQuiz Extra Credit Question:

Is investing in network services within your circle of competence if you don't know what these terms mean? How technical must you be to be in your circle of competence in this case?

Bare metal?
K8s?
VRAN?
SDN?
gNB?
MIMO?
Fronthaul?
Top of Rack?
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"Recent research suggests that current official statistics may understate productivity growth by missing a significant part of the growing value we derive from fast internet connections and smartphones." Jerome Powell October 08, 2019 federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…
I agree. And what about open source and imbedded software and non final goods? And exports? If they aren't part of "productivity," then what exactly are they? brookings.edu/wp-content/upl…
GPS handsets were once expensive (e.g., $1,000 plus). GPS is now in virtually all if not all smartphones. GPS in smartphones isn't part of GDP now because the price is zero. If GPS capability in a smartphone isn't part of productivity, then what is it?
Read 3 tweets

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rheuminate
@londyloo
*Long thread about how we treat patients* (Note: Names, dates, and patients have been altered to maintain HIPAA)

While walking down the long IM corridor on pre-rounds, my stomach churned. A sanitation pipe must have burst.

1/?
The smell hit my nostrils halfway down the hallway. A perfume of rotting flesh, syrup from breakfast trays, and human feces hit me like a train, stopping me in my tracks.

It radiated from a room. Briefly I peaked in and saw a patient with several blankets snoring. 2/
I spoke with janitor nearby. Told them to check the bathroom to ensure that there was not a sewage leak. And then I continued on my way to check on an elderly patient down the hall. 3/
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Fredrik Matheson
@movito
Thinking of UX quality, Deming and Topsight on discovering that my @BMW i3 hasn’t charged after all.

How can we monitor whether our services *actually work* for our customers? At scale.

How can we better understand how our customers deal with the coordinations and breakdowns?
How can we catch errors, and how can we understand their impact on our customers’ lives?

Netflix tackles this with chaos engineering medium.com/netflix-techbl…

@jeffsussna shows a path, with Promise-Driven Design
medium.com/@jeffsussna/vi…

vimeo.com/326447998
But when you’re building a product or service that isn’t only digital, it’s much harder to catch the remaining errors, much less understand their impact on your customers, and how this will affect your company.
Read 8 tweets
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Shay Castle
@shayshinecastle
Yo, yo, it's Alpine Balsam Area Plan time. *woot*
Here's the staff presentation: www-static.bouldercolorado.gov/docs/6A_CC_Alp…
Staff has broken up the area into five "character districts."
Neighborhood center (Ideal Market shopping center, etc.)
Hospital Site
North/South Gateways
Transitional mixed-use
Mixed residential
Read 84 tweets
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Eugene
@e_earns
Going to read “The Right Side of History”. This will be some mixture of enlightening, been there done that, and hate-read dunkathon. Let’s see.

No idea what Shapiro’s background is outside trolling libs, but I maybe he’s sort of Straussian? The ‘Jerusalem plus Athens’ thing.
So the thesis is ‘things have never been better, but we’re fucking it up now.’ Pinker + angst.
‘We’ in the book is Americans, natch.
Read 249 tweets
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Jessica Price
@Delafina777
Pilot: sooooo we're going to be hitting some turbulence on the way down so we're going to have the flight attendants come through the cabin early to pick up trash because it won't be safe for them to be moving around the cabin (1/x)
Pilot: soooo yeah it's going to be kind of rough as we begin our descent so I'm going to need you to make sure all of your belongings are secured because we wouldn't want anyone getting hurt
Pilot: sooooo please make sure your armrests are all the way down and locked because it's going to be sort of a hard landing
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