Indeed. The white independent voter, who consumes the imaginations of newspaper columnists and TV talking heads, isn't culturally conservative, didn't decide the 2016 election, and isn't a good demographic to target.
Let's start with 2016. /1
Let's start with 2016. /1
Whatever the causes, 2016 was a result of Rep/lean-Rep voters voting and Dem/lean-Dem voters not voting. Yes, 6 million Obama voters voted for Trump, but even more (6.7 million) Obama voters didn't vote or went third-party. Even still, Trump just barely squeaked out a victory. /2 
The Obama->Trump voters are conservative: 70% wanted to repeal the ACA. Courting these voters is suicidal for a Dem: they'd have to repudiate most of their base to get them.
But the Obama->no-vote voters are liberal. For example, they're strongly pro-choice & pro-environment. /3
But the Obama->no-vote voters are liberal. For example, they're strongly pro-choice & pro-environment. /3
46% of independents are really "lean-Dem." And those lean-Dems are not culturally conservative: they want to legalize marijuana, they support same-sex marriage, they believe in racial justice, and they like immigrants.
They just don't like DC politicians, so they don't vote. /4
They just don't like DC politicians, so they don't vote. /4
In fact, the overwhelming majority of independents (as a whole, not just lean-Dem) support the supposedly too-liberal things Dem candidates are proposing, like a wealth tax, Medicare-for-All, and free college / reducing student debt. /5
The response is usually "what about the electoral college, huh? PA/WI/MI? FL?" What about them? If those states were wildly more conservative than America as a whole (they're not), you would never see Sanders and Warren beating Trump in polls, particularly not this early. /6
Voting patterns are complicated, but this is clear: a Dem who pushes liberal social values & policies is doing what Dems and Dem-lean indies want. A Dem who pushes conservative social values & centrist policies is reaching for Rep-lean indies and hoping the Dem base shows up. /7
Are both strategies plausible? Sure. IMHO, the latter (court Rep-leaners) is the bigger gamble: it risks a repeat of 2016, in which Dems and Dem-leaners don't turnout in large enough numbers. The former (go for Dem & Dem-lean) aims to repeat 2018, recovering Obama->no-vote.
/end
/end
Adding to this, I've seen commentary on Sanders saying he's a "socialist" in contrast to Warren being a "capitalist" (she's said that herself).
Rep/lean-Rep hate socialism! But among Dem/lean-Dem it's more of a shrug. A modest lean towards socialism, but few with strong views.
Rep/lean-Rep hate socialism! But among Dem/lean-Dem it's more of a shrug. A modest lean towards socialism, but few with strong views.
