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, 5 tweets, 3 min read
"Bastin et al strongly overestimate the potential of forest restoration to mitigate climate change. The claim that global tree restoration is our most effective climate change solution is simply incorrect scientifically and dangerously misleading."
1/
 science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…
When your Science paper gets four technical comments & three letters to the editor, perhaps pause for thought!

The edited article is here (abstract edited I believe) science.sciencemag.org/content/365/64…
2/
The four technical comments are open access:

@SimonLLewis et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

@PFriedling et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

Veldman et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

Grainger et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

Author response: science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

3/
There were another three letters, though not open access
science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

4/
Yes, forest restoration is important, but not the "most effective climate change solution to date". The estimated potential of 205GtC (750GtCO2) is way too large.

GHG emissions need to go as close to zero as possible, & then forest restoration & negative emissions can help.

5/5
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More from @Peters_Glen see all

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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
"[If this comment should have one recommendation], it would be that a poster of [this figure] hangs in every office where modelling takes place"

A solid critique of mathematical modelling & suggestions to improve...

1/
nature.com/articles/s4146…
"Yet if statistics is coming to terms with methodological abuse and wicked incentives, it appears legitimate to ask if something of the sort might be happening in the multiverse of mathematical modelling"
2/
"The preregistration of a modelling exercise before the model is coded is unheard of, although without assessing model purpose one cannot judge its quality." Also need to address model usefulness...

3/
Read 11 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
1. Renewable capacity (including hydro & bioenergy) predicted to grow 50% to 2024, but not enough to cover all new capacity demand suggesting CO₂ emissions will continue to rise...

iea.org/renewables2019/
2. The IEA has been known to consistently under predict renewable growth. The IEA forecast is 14% higher than last year due to improved policies & increasing competitiveness.

Many will argue renewables will grow faster...

carbonbrief.org/analysis-renew…
3. The IEA has an accelerated case, suggesting most potential for acceleration is in China & Asia, with a big dose from Europe.

To meet the accelerated case need to address "grid integration, policy uncertainty & financing challenges"

iea.org/renewables2019/
Read 9 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Solar is growing rapidly in many markets (even exponentially). China & some emerging markets are leading the way, as some developed countries (US & in the EU particularly) are having some hiccups...

1/
Data: bp.com/en/global/corp…
Growth at the global level has been maintained at over 20%/yr for more than a decade, but a climb down from the lofty heights around 2010.

2/
The EU & the US have both had slower growth rates in the last five years. Growth rates in China & India are more erratic, but generally very high!

Positive progress, but still a long way to go!

3/3
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Leo Hickman
@LeoHickman
Remember that eye-catching Science paper back in July by @bast_jief et al which attracted headlines about how tree-planting had "mind-blowing potential" for tackling climate change?

Well, @sciencemagazine has now published 4x critical responses...

theguardian.com/environment/20…
. @SimonLLewis @ProfMarkMaslin et al say in their response that the original paper’s claim that the “restoration potential of new forests globally is 205 gigatonnes of carbon” is “incorrect”.

science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…
. @PFriedling, Myles Allen, @Peters_Glen et al say that “this estimate and its implications for climate mitigation are inconsistent with the dynamics of the global carbon cycle and its response to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions”.

science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…
Read 7 tweets
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Ruth Mottram
@ruth_mottram
Amazing footage - apropos this and the Watson River flood of 2012, my colleagues and I were inspired to write a paper looking at the potential for high runoff events in the future in this paper researchgate.net/publication/32…
In our future #climate simulations the region in western #Greenland that includes #Kangerlussuaq from the #icesheet to the shores of the #DavisStrait we show how melt + runoff of early 2000s was outpacing mid-century projections*

*Caveat: only one GCM #ECEARTH shown here
The more extreme the scenario - the more extreme the projected melting, but note the very high interannual variability.
Read 10 tweets
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Pep Canadell
@pepcanadell
I am disappointed that Science has allowed an abstract of a, otherwise good, paper to say that planting trees is "our most effective climate change solution to date". This is factually wrong and certainly a distraction. 1/2
bit.ly/2LBUbID
Planting trees is certainly an important part of the climate change mitigation portfolio, but are neither cheaper nor easier to implement than other options. Most importantly, it won't fix the climate problem, albeit it should be part of the solution. 2/2
it is also important to recognise that trees come with litter and soils, so a tree-only focus will always report a partial carbon balance of the true effect on climate, eg, more trees in a future warmer Russia and Canada can also have higher emissions from C-rich soils.
Read 6 tweets
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ClimateEnergyCollege
@ClimateCollege
Here are links to some of the papers that are included in that photo from 12 months of publications. And that photo is only *some* of our published papers.

This is an epic thread because our team are awesome. This is while they work on a PhD. Casually--on the side--like you do.
Elisabeth Vogel and Rachelle Meyer, ‘Climate Change, Climate Extremes, and Global Food Production—Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector’ in Zinta Zommers and Keith Alverson (eds), Resilience (Elsevier, 2018) 31 <sciencedirect.com/science/articl…>

Here's @evbln and @meyer_rachelle.
Niina Kautto, Alexei Trundle and Darryn McEvoy, ‘Climate Adaptation Planning in the Higher Education Sector’ [2018] International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education <emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.110…>.

Go @AlexeiPT!
Read 25 tweets
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Jason Mark
@writerfarmer
Late last night veteran #climate journalist @Revkin asked some sharp questions about @Sierra_Magazine’s “The Case for Climate Reparations,” spurred by an appreciative post from NYC Chief Resilience Officer @dzarrilli. Here’s my response …
My essay is only concerned with climate change-related damages in the US spurred, as I argue, by US actors like the oil majors. I could’ve written about Peruvian villagers suing a German energy giant & melting glaciers in the Andes, but that’s beyond the scope of my article.
So I had to identify extreme weather events in the US. As NOAA has reported, 2017 was the most destructive year on record for “natural” disasters. See this tracker ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summa…
Read 21 tweets
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Holly Jones
@DocHPJones
A thread: I am SO HAPPY to announce that our paper on #Restoration and Recovery of Earth's Damaged Ecosystems is out in @royalsociety Proceedings B! rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/285/18… We are in the process of making it #openaccess but HMU if you want a PDF.
It has already received some media coverage and I'll try to keep this thread updated with more. Here's the first story: chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-ec…
I am extremely proud of this work. I have been building a database of studies that look at restoration/recovery for nearly 10 YEARS now. And I got to work with amazing co-authors @josemreybenayas @KDHoll5 @iheartnitrogen and other non-tweeps.
Read 34 tweets

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