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, 9 tweets, 4 min read
1. Renewable capacity (including hydro & bioenergy) predicted to grow 50% to 2024, but not enough to cover all new capacity demand suggesting CO₂ emissions will continue to rise...

iea.org/renewables2019/
2. The IEA has been known to consistently under predict renewable growth. The IEA forecast is 14% higher than last year due to improved policies & increasing competitiveness.

Many will argue renewables will grow faster...

carbonbrief.org/analysis-renew…
3. The IEA has an accelerated case, suggesting most potential for acceleration is in China & Asia, with a big dose from Europe.

To meet the accelerated case need to address "grid integration, policy uncertainty & financing challenges"

iea.org/renewables2019/
4. A distributed solar PV boom?

Total distributed PV capacity more than doubles by 2024, but this only represents 6% of the global technical potential...
5. In many markets, distributed PV is already cheaper than electricity prices. But, "New policies & market reforms are needed to find a balance between the opposing interests of distributed PV owners, energy & distribution companies, & electricity consumers in general"
6. The increase in capacity of 1,220GW means the world would build renewable capacity equal to the entire US electricity system today, but even at this level, fossil fuel generation would also increase as would the electricity sector’s CO₂ emissions...
carbonbrief.org/analysis-renew…
7. Total biofuel output is forecast to increase 25% by 2024, with China is set to have the largest biofuel production growth of any country due to the rollout of 10% ethanol blending. The US & Brazil still provide two-thirds of total biofuel production in 2024.
8. Heat generated from renewable energy is set to expand by one-fifth between 2019 and 2024, but "renewable heating potential remains vastly underexploited & deployment is not in line with global climate targets, calling for greater ambition and stronger policy support".
9. While renewable energies are growing, particularly solar & wind, the energy system remains completely dominated by coal, oil, & gas...

A boom in renewables is needed, but to meet climate goals that must happen in parallel to a decline in coal, oil, & gas!

/END
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More from @Peters_Glen see all

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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
"[If this comment should have one recommendation], it would be that a poster of [this figure] hangs in every office where modelling takes place"

A solid critique of mathematical modelling & suggestions to improve...

1/
nature.com/articles/s4146…
"Yet if statistics is coming to terms with methodological abuse and wicked incentives, it appears legitimate to ask if something of the sort might be happening in the multiverse of mathematical modelling"
2/
"The preregistration of a modelling exercise before the model is coded is unheard of, although without assessing model purpose one cannot judge its quality." Also need to address model usefulness...

3/
Read 11 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
"Bastin et al strongly overestimate the potential of forest restoration to mitigate climate change. The claim that global tree restoration is our most effective climate change solution is simply incorrect scientifically and dangerously misleading."
1/
 science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…
When your Science paper gets four technical comments & three letters to the editor, perhaps pause for thought!

The edited article is here (abstract edited I believe) science.sciencemag.org/content/365/64…
2/
The four technical comments are open access:

@SimonLLewis et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

@PFriedling et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

Veldman et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

Grainger et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

Author response: science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

3/
Read 5 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Solar is growing rapidly in many markets (even exponentially). China & some emerging markets are leading the way, as some developed countries (US & in the EU particularly) are having some hiccups...

1/
Data: bp.com/en/global/corp…
Growth at the global level has been maintained at over 20%/yr for more than a decade, but a climb down from the lofty heights around 2010.

2/
The EU & the US have both had slower growth rates in the last five years. Growth rates in China & India are more erratic, but generally very high!

Positive progress, but still a long way to go!

3/3
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
THREAD

Offshore wind has "near limitless" potential & is "set to be competitive with fossil fuels within the next decade", as costs fall 60% by 2040.

Turbines will soon be as large as the Eiffel Tower.

Pretty amazing stuff from today's new @IEA report.

webstore.iea.org/offshore-wind-…
There is technical potential for offshore wind to meet Europe's entire electricity demand more than 10 times over, the IEA says, and 9x in Japan.

Even India (could) get all its electricity from offshore wind!

webstore.iea.org/offshore-wind-…
Before we get too excited, though, it's worth noting offshore wind is starting from a very low base.

So even ≥15x increase means it'd still only meet 3-5% of global electricity demand by 2040.

webstore.iea.org/offshore-wind-…
Read 9 tweets
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Robert Colvile
@rcolvile
Labour's announcement on offshore wind is a fascinating case study in how the party isn't even pretending to care about fiscal discipline or prudent economics any more (1/?)
Last January, we totted up independent estimates of Labour's renationalisation plans and came up with a lowest-bound figure of £176 billion. cps.org.uk/research/the-c…
McDonnell went tonto. Said we should be ignored as a bunch of Thatcherites, refused to engage on any of the detail (no one from Labour has challenged a single figure). Insisted that it would cost taxpayer nothing, cos 'Parliament would set the price' & you'd have the assets
Read 19 tweets
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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
44. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria
#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
1 to 20. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
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Read 468 tweets
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
The world's fossil fuel CO2 emissions reached a record high in 2018, according to the @IEA

That's really terrible news for meeting global climate goals:

CO2 must peak and rapidly decline, to have any chance of avoiding dangerous warming.

THREAD

1/
iea.org/geco/
The IEA findings confirm preliminary estimates published by @gcarbonproject in December, which also found fossil fuel CO2 reaching a record high.

(Overall CO2 grew slightly slower than from fossil fuels, GCP said, due to falling land use emissions).

2/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossi…
The main problem was that global energy demand rose at its fastest pace for a decade (coloured bar on the right of the chart).

3/
iea.org/k3k0/
Read 11 tweets
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JesseJenkins
@JesseJenkins
With legislation committing California to 100% carbon-free electricity sitting on Gov. Brown’s desk, I wanted to share a timely new peer-reviewed article out today in the journal, @Joule_CP: cell.com/joule/fulltext…
In the paper, @nsepulvedam, @FdeSisternes, Prof. Richard Lester and I use detailed power system modeling to identify strategies that lower the costs and increase the odds of reaching a zero-carbon electricity grid. Check out MIT News coverage of the paper: technologyreview.com/s/611987/how-c…
After ~1,000 cases covering possible future tech cost, regional diffs in renewables quality & demand, and different limits on CO2, our study consistently demonstrates the best way to zero out electricity emissions is to deploy a balanced mix of low-carbon electricity sources.
Read 52 tweets

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