Thread by @ruth_mottram

Amazing footage - apropos this and the Watson River flood of 2012, my colleagues and I were inspired to write a paper looking at the potential for high runoff events in the future in this paper researchgate.net/publication/32…

https://twitter.com/IrinaOvereem/status/1156227258320732160

In our future #climate simulations the region in western #Greenland that includes #Kangerlussuaq from the #icesheet to the shores of the #DavisStrait we show how melt + runoff of early 2000s was outpacing mid-century projections*

*Caveat: only one GCM #ECEARTH shown here

The more extreme the scenario - the more extreme the projected melting, but note the very high interannual variability.

A similar study using different climate models by @xavierfettweis had similar results:

researchgate.net/publication/25…

eg; see basin 5 here:

In fact generally across #Greenland over the 21st century there will be increasing melt but also increasing precipitation - which one will win?
Our results suggest melt:

researchgate.net/publication/31…

It's important to remember that any given day or year, #Greenland #icesheet #surfacemassbudget is a result largely of #weather, though with the background #climate trend affecting this. New paper Ruan et al show how NAO variability affects melt/runoff on multi-year timescale

After increase in early 2000s slowdown in #Greenland #icesheet #ice loss is observed, but conclude "GrIS melt during last two decades is attributable to a combination of both secular trend of global warming during last century + multidecadal variability"
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…

Ruan et al., 2019 point to the importance of clouds and their occurence over the ice sheet as one of the most important controls on melt, a conclusion supported by @st_hof paper on this: advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/6/e1…

Unfortunately, clouds are also an area that #climatemodels often struggle to get right, as this paper also by @st_hof @xavierfettweis et al published: nature.com/articles/s4155…

Differences for the melt extent between #HARMONIEAROME and #MAR will in part very likely be attributable to the different handling of clouds. /fin