I've been floating a 3rd Israeli election - a.k.a. #IsraElex20 - as a very real possibility ever since @netanyahu failed to form a new govt after April's #IsraElex19v1 (atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…). Back then, most people thought there would never be a 2nd ballot, much less a 3rd. /1
The main arguments of those who still believe that another (!) repeat is an impossibility are two: that 1) the vast majority of Israelis are opposed to a 3rd vote, and 2) another vote will likely generate the exact same deadlock now plaguing Israel. /2
Perhaps, BUT those considerations are largely irrelevant to the issue. A 3rd election will happen inevitably if political protagonists are unwilling to compromise - for reasons of substance and/or ego - and coalesce around one leader or another. /3
Netanyahu's punt tonight of the presidential mandate to build a coalition moves Israel that much closer to a new election. If his 55 member bloc holds firm - maybe, maybe not - @gantzbe's chances of forming a govt will be slim to none. /4
If he too fails at this task, @PresidentRuvi will have latitude to charge another member of @KnessetIL to take a shot, but success will depend upon a majority of 120 legislators lining up behind one of their own as a new PM - quite possibly, a bridge too far. /5
Which leaves a scenario of further political bloodletting where parties - and the electorate - "decide" by default to keep getting pummeled at the polls until something gives and a winner emerges. Not an optimstic script, but certainly a realistic one. END
