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I also have a long article up discussing the performance of the polls in recent elections, plus some changes to our methodology.

The topline conclusion is pretty important: Polls have been quite accurate in post-2016 elections.

53eig.ht/34HO1Nx
Polls were also largely unbiased in 2017-19 elections after 2 cycles they had a statistical bias toward Democrats, which should also be relieving.
I've got to head offline now, but there's lots more in here that polling geeks will find interesting, including some new techniques we're applying to detect pollster herding & punish the ratings for pollsters who herd. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-s…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing I wonder about Warren is whether the ferocity of the backlash from certain parts of the D establishment to her emerging as a frontrunner caught her campaign by surprise.
There were many "establishment warming to Warren!" stories, which indicated she was preferred to Sanders at a minimum (and maybe most others too). But the moment she (almost) catches Biden in polls, there's an outpouring of anxiety rather than, say, a bunch of endorsements.
We can debate the reasons for that backlash. Misogyny is always a potential ingredient.

But if she thought she could simultaneously seem like a populist to the left, and a wonky, left-but-not-TOO-far-left pragmatic Dem to moderates/the establishment, that's been challenging.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing is that this latest Buttigieg surge is that he initially gained only ~1 point or so after last month's debate, but the media declared it was a huge surge ... and now he's seemingly having a more significant surge, at least in the early states.
Some evidence of this: Buttigieg's net favorability numbers, though they were already quite good, didn't actually improve in this poll from Monmonth's previous one. He's just been more salient in the conversation so more voters have him as their first choice.
p.s. This is a bit of the risk candidates face in attacking Buttigieg. They potentially elevate his profile and keep him in the news. You don't face that problem as much when attacking Biden, Sanders or Warren since they're already household names.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Deval Patrick has more upside than Bloomberg, but he's far from a household name, wouldn't initially be able to participate in debates, and isn't obviously more compelling to D voters than a number of other well-qualified alternatives who are polling at 2-3%.
Plus, candidates who enter late have a terrible track record and D voters are quite happy with their choices. So for a new entrant, we're at a point of going VERY big (say, Oprah! big) or going home.
I do think next week's debate is a big opportunity for Booker, Harris and Klobuchar, who as I've said a number of times are more plausible nominees than a lot of the names being thrown out there.
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Nathaniel Whittemore
@nlw
Long Reads Sunday #55. The Donald Debrief.

Let's be real, no matter what else happened, this will forever be the week that Trump tweeted about Bitcoin. How’d we get here, and what does it mean?

Strap in friends, it’s long reads time! 👇

(art @CryptoScamHub)
2/ Quick Shill!

As you guys know, I’ve been doing a daily livestream - 3 topics, 3 minutes each, 3pm EST. But now it’s available as a podcast!

Check it out!

Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/2lEH6JKmL…

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3/ The week started with a bang, as 18,000 Deutsche Bank bankers showed up on Monday to discover they didn’t have jobs. Some pondered what it said about the state of the global banking system, but most grabbed on to a very specific picture.
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afghan peace
@afghanpeacenews
2019 presidential #elections in #Afghanistan
IEC Launches Voter Registration Process ariananews.af/iec-launches-v…

“The voter registration sites will remain open from 7 am until 4 pm and the process will end on June 28th,” said Hawa Alam Nuristani, the chairwoman of IEC.
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Dr. Janelle Anthro
@JanelleJeanne
Hey, did you know you can access aggregate voter data from Florida's elections? dos.myflorida.com/elections/data…
The data are not user friendly. You download a zip file, which contains .txt files for each county. You can copy and past into a spreadsheet or upload into a statistical software package. #OpenAccess #Elections dos.myflorida.com/elections/data…
Weird thing though: the aggregate voter information is there for most of the counties, but NOT PALM BEACH @pbpost . The # registered in each precinct is missing. So are the # of votes for each candidate. Just zeros. At least as of today.
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Diana Butler Bass
@dianabutlerbass
From a friend -- a billboard spotted outside of St Louis. I don't like using the word "heresy," but I think I'll make an exception in this case.
The billboard is one of those rotating electronic ones — my friend reports that this showed up on two different billboards outside STL in recent days. The group also has a FB page.
The Gospel is pretty darn great already, however American Christianity apparently could use a dose of greatness — like really living what Jesus taught.
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Jeffrey Sachs
@JeffreyASachs
Imagine for a moment the most obscurantist, jargon-filled, po-mo article the politically correct academy might produce. Pure SJW nonsense. Got it? Chances are you're imagining something like the infamous "Feminist Glaciology" article from a few years back.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
I'm dredging this article up now because for many people, it is the ne plus ultra of bad humanities writing, the archetypal example of "Grievance Studies" scholarship that adds nothing of value to human knowledge, and in fact may actively detract from it.

They're wrong.
Warning: This thread is going to be long and extremely insider baseball. You may want to mute. However, @Inframethod asked me to do this some time ago, so here we go.
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Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
#Important:
Yesterday late afternoon #Russia/n forces took 3 positions in Qusseyr and Juseh and established checkpoints. #Hezbollah, not informed of the Russian presence, came close to these forces and asked their immediate pull out+
Following the direct intervention of President Bashar al-Assad, the Russian force pulled out this morning and avoided any clash with #Hezbollah in the area.

hezbollah maantin and kept all positions. The #Russia/n move was not coordinated.+

#Hezbollah did not...I repeat, did not pull out one single element from the area.

I spoke to people on the ground: The Russian decision was unclear and considered unwelcome by the forces on the ground. Still, many elements of this move are unclear.

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