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It's going to be an ugly day in Gaza and southern Israel.

Israel assassinated a senior Islamic Jihad commander inside Gaza early this morning. Palestinian factions are now firing an intense barrage of rockets into Israel in retaliation.
Gaza is run by Hamas but Islamic Jihad is a smaller faction that operates from the Strip.

Israel said it killed Baha Abu al-Ata because he was responsible for several recent rocket strikes from Gaza and was planning "immediate" further attacks on Israel.
It's relatively rare these days that Israel carries out targeted assassinations but they say they considered al-Ata an imminent threat.

Israel allegedly targeted another Islamic Jihad leader in Damascus at the same time. The Palestinian group's HQ is in Syria.
Islamic Jihad and Hamas are firing barrages of rockets into southern Israel right now. Families are running for bomb shelters and sirens are going off everywhere.

For the first time since the 2014 war, schools and shops are closed in Tel Aviv.
Big question of course is: will this lead to war?

The received wisdom is that neither Hamas nor Israel wants a war. But if Islamic Jihad carries out massive retaliation for the assassination it could lead to one.
This is all happening at a complicated moment in Israeli politics.

Neither Netanyahu nor his centrist rival, Benny Gantz, have been able to form a government since Israel's indecisive election in September left neither side with a majority.
Netanyahu ordered the strike and Gantz says this morning that he supports the decision.

But the Joint List, the main party representing Israel's Arab minority, says the strike was a cynical political move by Netanyahu to try to hold on to power.
Today will be dominated by the fighting. But when the smoke clears there may be Israeli political implications.

This makes it more likely that Gantz-Netanyahu find a way to form a unity govt, and less likely Gantz forms a minority govt that depends on support from Joint List.
Israeli military says 50 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel so far this morning. No reports of fatalities yet.

20 of the rockets were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system, army says.
Both Netanyahu and the IDF chief of staff are due to speak shortly about the situation in Gaza and southern Israel.
IDF says it carried out an airstrike on two Islamic Jihad fighters who were preparing to launch a rocket from Gaza.

If the Islamic Jihad fighters were killed (it sounds like they were) it's likely to only increase the group's appetite for escalation.
Netanyahu's statement has now been delayed until 12pm Israeli time / 10am UK.
IDF says it is striking Islamic Jihad targets inside Gaza.
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