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Death toll higher than in previous exchanges of fire in period since August 2014 (4 Israeli citizens, 18 Palestinians, at least 7 of them militants and at least 2 of the civilians seem to have been killed by Palestinian rockets falling short inside Gaza) but it's still limited >>
Both sides have ratcheted up their actions. Israel by carrying out its first targeted killing of a Hamas commander since 2014, Hamas by firing an anti-tank missile directly at a civilian vehicle and killing its occupant. But they're still holding back most of their capabilities>>
Hamas and PIJ have yet to use any of their longer-range rockets towards Tel Aviv and the overwhelming number of Israeli airstrikes are still against empty "real estate" targets. Both sides still reluctant to take steps making a much wider longer-term confrontation inevitable >>
Hamas and PIJ leaders still in Cairo, in ceasefire talks brokered by Egyptians, and Israel, while reinforcing units around Gaza, isn't making advance preparations for a ground offensive. Both sides still prefer to end this round soon. But Hamas needs to extract some concession >>
What we've seen so far is Hamas knows it can push boundaries and has leverage over Israel which is anxious to restore calm before Independence Day and Eurovision. Also Hamas is challenged by the smaller PIJ, which has Iran's backing and much less to lose from a conflagration >>
We've also seen that Netanyahu has the long-term strategic objective of keeping Hamas in power, ensuring Gaza and Fatah-ruled West Bank remain separate, which he believes is a major obstacle to 2-state solution. Here's an aide of his admitting it openly >>
Netanyahu currently doens't have a press operation for government, because he was focused for so long on the campaign. Which leaves the IDF spox carrying the can for the civilian leadership and no clear message coming from the Israeli government. Just politicians' briefings >>
What we've been hearing from Bibi's proxies is "getting dragged in to a war in Gaza is foolish" OTOH after this evening's cabinet ministers told reporters that Independence Day and Eurovision "are not considerations" and be prepared for conflict ot drag on. Believe the proxies >>
Netanyahu is anxious to end this soon, not just because of Independence/Eurovision and his plan to keep Gaza under Hamas divided from West Bank, but because by nature he doens't like large military confrontations, they go against his risk-averseness. And there's another problem>>
Iron Dome remains an incredible system capable of assessing which rockets threaten built-up areas and intercepting the great majority of them, but Hamas and PIJ are trying to overwhelm the system with multiple salvoes of rockets, meaning some do get through and cause casualties>>
The Hamas/PIJ rockets are increasingly cheap and shoddy, many falling short & causing Palestinian casualties, but 100s of them fired at cities like Ashdod and Ashkelon ultimately kill Israeli civilians, and are depleting Israel's store of interceptor missiles, which aren't cheap>
Hamas hoping Egypt/Qatar will help them get more $s and concessions from Israel so has incentive to end this round quickly. Likewise Israel wants coming week and a half to be calm. PIJ remain wild-card but will probably play along. Ceasefire in a couple of days still likeliest >>
But even if ceasefire is achieved within 48 hours, the swift escalation over the weekend is proof that unless a long-term solution for Gaza is agreed upon soon, chances of avoiding a full-out confrontation, next escalation, will have been significantly reduced. Long tense summer.
No statement from Israeli government or Palestinian organizations but after 4-hour lull, roads on Israeli side near Gaza border being reopened to civilian traffic and local authorities notified they can start returning to normal (but no school today). All signs of ceasefire >>
IDF Home Front Command now officially notifying civil defense restrictions in southern Israel have been removed. In other words, the anonymous minister who yesterday briefed this could go on "past Eurovision" was talking bullshit. Another #Gaza round seems to be over. 27 killed.
Hamas will probably get another infusion of Qatari cash in the next few days, which was going to be happen anyway. Bottom line, nothing changes in Gaza, nothing solved and next round could come soon and be even worse.
