Thread by @chaseakiddy

Trey Lance v. Ben DiNucci v. Eric Barriere: A Walter Payton Award Thread, inspired by @The_BrakeDown and @BrianMacWriter:

All three guys have insane numbers. All three guys have pretty good cases for the top offensive award in FCS. Two have been regularly talked about. #FCS

Let's set a good base by looking at raw numbers, which are important, but still way overvalued for these awards.

EB: 313.8 pypg (2nd in FCS)
BD: 220.3 pypg (45th in FCS)
TL: 185.5 pypg (69th in FCS)

Unsurprisingly, because of scheme and game flow, Barriere has a huge lead here.

All three guys are mobile quarterbacks.

TL: 684 yards (62 ypg/7.1ypc)
EB: 535 yards (49ypg/5.0 ypc)
BD: 344 yards (31ypg/4.4ypc)

Both TL and BD's rushing output follows a bell curve. 69% of EB's output comes from three games, against teams who have a combined record of 14-18.

How about offensive output and corresponding function?

>NDSU has scored 61 offensive TDs. TL has accounted for 32, or 52 percent.
>JMU has scored 55 offensive TDs. BD has accounted for 24, or 44 percent.
>EWU has scored 54 offensive TDs. EB has accounted for 35, or 67 percent.

Passing Efficiency is always telling, and I think here, it speaks to how ridiculous both NDSU and JMU's offenses have been this year.

TL: 196.6 PE (1st in FCS)
BD: 171.4 PE (4th in FCS)
EB: 151.7 PE (12th in FCS)

What kind of complementary elements do these guys have?

NDSU: 305.7 team rush ypg (4th)
JMU: 236.2 team rush ypg (11th)
EWU: 199.5 team rush ypg (24th)

NDSU: 274.1 yards/12.7 points (1st/2nd)
JMU: 283.1 yards/15.2 points (5th/3rd)
EWU: 435.0 yards/33.5 points (98th/94th)

We don't talk about the WP Award like the Heisman, but what kinds of "Heisman Moments" do these guys have?

EB: Alongside Antoine Custer, he completely bailed out EWU last weekend at Cal Poly. Massive game vs UNC, too.
BD: Pretty much single-handedly won the Stony Brook game.

"Walter Payton Moments" Ctd:

Trey Lance: Probably none, but, 1) it's not his fault NDSU has only been in two close games all year, and 2) his consistency is impressive. No INTs all year suggests a really high floor. (It also suggests conservative usage from the coaches.)

Another note on Trey: it needs to be said that he was not very good in what were arguably NDSU's two most high-profile games of the year: UC Davis and at SDSU.

In the interest of fairness, let's also mention Barrier's awful JSU game, and DiNucci's killer INT in Morgantown.

I think one of these guys will probably win the award. I think a couple of guys have outside shots -- VMI RB Alex Ramsey comes to mind -- but in general, the modern history of the award is clear. The award goes to a QB on a good-not-great team that ends up as a box score hero.

With that in mind, Barriere is probably the guy. Like Samford in '18, Eastern is unlikely to make the playoffs, but we know that won't impact Barriere's candidacy. He's got all the raw numbers that you need, and he's got the profile to grab less knowledgable voters.

Let's be honest: voters are not going to hand the NDSU quarterback 2 of the 3 major awards, regardless of whether or not he deserves them. Is that right? Is that fair? Maybe not. But that's the reality.

Trey Lance will win Jerry Rice. Eric Barriere will win Walter Payton.

Thanks for reading. I'm going to happy hour now.