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Flight attendant: "Is there an investor on this flight? The pilots are arguing about their portfolios."

Friend: "What's the probability they understand the difference between price and value?"

Me: "About zero. I heard them blabbering about ratios when we boarded."
Me: "90% of Swedish drivers believe they're above average. People who are good at what they do professionally, like pilots, make Swedish drivers sound like depressives. Most professionals believe they're above average investors, no matter what their past track record may be."
Friend: "That guy rushing up the aisle is carrying a brochure for variable annuities."

Me: "I saw. The surrender charges, sales load and fees on that product would choke a hippo they are so huge."

Friend: "Smart people aren’t exempt from disasters caused by overconfidence."
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More from @trengriffin see all

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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Fred Wilson: "I read a piece on Alan Shugart, the founder of Seagate, one of the most successful disk drive companies. Alan was quoted as saying that 'cash is more important than your mother.' That got my attention because mothers are really important." avc.com/2019/11/cash-m…
"Cash is everything in a startup. It is the fuel that keeps the car running. Startups fail largely because they run out of cash. Forecasting cash is more art than science, particularly in a growing company. You have to engage in cash forecasting [and] engage in it regularly..."
There have been a lot of breathless articles lately about the need for startups to "get profitable." What's really happening is business are being forced to focus on cash and cash management. Shit happens. Having cash gives you optionality. Not having cash when needed is deadly.
Read 4 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ Seattle has 484 pinball machines out for public play. That’s a pinball-to-person ratio of 1:1,835, making Seattle the No. 2 pinball city in the US. Portland is in first place with 1:1,141. Chicago, 1:14,524; New Orleans, 1:20,700; New York, 1:28,743. seattletimes.com/pacific-nw-mag…
2/ The first time I saw a dead body was the victim of a mob hit:

"Ben Cichy, who controlled Seattle pinball licenses — and was a close friend of King County Prosecutor Charles O. Carroll. On May 31, 1969, Cichy was found dead in 5 feet of water near his yacht on Yarrow Point."
3/ I wrote a 25iQ blog post about Seattle's "tolerance policy."

"Before his death Mr. Cichy contributed to my childhood education when, together with some friends, I found a chest buried near his home filled with Playboy magazines from the early 1960s." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"We’re starting to see a period where valuation is going to be the driver for future returns"

As opposed to all the other times when the tooth fairy drives future returns? reuters.com/article/us-usa…
A P/E ratio is only a shortcut for valuation.

"The forward P/E ratio for Stoxx 600 is 15.4 beow the 19.3 forward P/E of tS&P 500"

Contra: "Expected long-term cash flows, discounted by the cost of capital—not reported earnings—determine stock prices." expectationsinvesting.com/pdf/earnings.p…
"Earnings offer a shortcut, freeing investors from the subjective and time-consuming need to assess long-term cash-flow prospects."

...Earnings are useful in valuing stocks only if they help forecast a company’s future cash flows." Rappaport and Mauboussin
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Helen Pluckrose is taking a break.
@HPluckrose
People accusing Bret of wanting to outlaw ideas he doesn't like are being very obtuse. It really shouldn't be difficult to understand the difference between "The world would be a better place if we all believed X" and "We need to legally enforce belief of X & only X." 1/2
It's particularly strange because I bet nearly every believing Christian misunderstanding this, themselves believes both:
"It would be better if everyone believed in the divinity of Christ"
AND
"No-one should be legally required to express belief in the divinity of Christ." 2/2
I run into this confusion frequently. People accuse me of wanting to ban various types of "studies" because I am so critical of them, but I don't. I am, above all, a believer in the Marketplace of Ideas. I want to be influential on "Theory" losing.
Read 13 tweets
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CSM
@usacsmret
Republicans: Get Some Spine And Support Your President newswithviews.com/republicans-ge…
MEMORANDUM TO: STILLBORN ELECTED REPUBLICANS
FROM: TRUMP VOTERS
SUBJECT: GET SOME SPINE AND SUPPORT YOUR PRESIDENT
DATE: From November 2019 THRU November 2020
Below is displayed a human spine – otherwise known as a backbone. I explain what it is (though a child would recognize it) because you appear to have forgotten what it means to have a sufficient amount of backbone TO STAND UP AND PUBLICLY SUPPPORT OUR REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT.
Read 51 tweets
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T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
Probably. They're so bad at it it's hard to tell though tbh

It's weird, because @ljmontello's affidavit mentions the 2004 (Paragraph 6), 2007 (Paragraphs 7-8), and 2009 (Paragraph 9) conventions

She never claimed to be at Tekko 2010. Why are you lying?

That's just for starters

Read 1720 tweets
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T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
("Ex parte" is Latin for "from." An ex parte communication is one coming from only one party, not providing any notice to the other party. Basically the opposite of a letter copied to opposing counsel, filed publicly, and served via the electronic filing system.)
It is quite literally impossible to overstate how fantastically dumb Ty Beard's "ex parte" characterization is

To any minimally competent attorney, it screams "this guy doesn't know what he's doing"
JESUS AND PERCY INCLUDED A VERIFICATION, BUT DIDN'T TAKE OUT HIS LIE THAT HE JUST SWORE TO BE TRUE 🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣
Read 1610 tweets
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T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
The motion is weak and the basis is LOLable, but my suspicion is that the judge will grant it (though likely for less than 3 weeks)

Defendants will argue the burden is on Plaintiff to show good cause (the motion doesn't do that), plus ongoing harassment

Positive for the Defendants. He gives their attorneys lots of usable material

A good rule of thumb as y'all see an assortment of "bUt ThEy LiEd UnDeR oAtH" tweets from conVics is that they're typically projecting – accusing others of the things they themselves or R.Broly have done

Consider these excerpt from the R.Broly deposition...

1/
Read 1569 tweets
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Nick Wallis
@nickwallis
We are at the High Court’s Rolls Building for Day 6 of the Horizon trial, part of the Bates v Post Office group litigation. @PostOffice director Angela van den Bogerd continuing to give evidence. In the last trial she was found to have misled the court.
#postofficetrial
@PostOffice Follow this thread for live tweets from court. Please note EVERYTHING I write is a paraphrase or summary of what happens in court. It is not a direct quote unless it is in “direct quotes”.
Short preamble before AB’s evidence continues re redaction of documents. @PostOffice are trying to withhold from the judge on grounds of confidentiality privilege and relevance. Judge implying he will decide what is relevant and if PO holds out on that factor he will take a view.
Read 61 tweets

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