1\ I have just finished another Medium article. This time it's about the validation of another bitcoin model. Here's a little thread.
2\ During the summer days this year I have spent quite some time looking into @100trillionUSD's (by now) famous work in which he analysed the relation between the stock-to-flow of bitcoin and its price.
3\ Most people applaud modelling work that shows an ever increasing line for bitcoins price, but I rather am a bit more skeptic and leverage my background to check if these models are fundamentally any good.
The fact I wasn't able to falsify the work of PlanB was mind blowing.
The fact I wasn't able to falsify the work of PlanB was mind blowing.
4\ There are also people who like to criticise the work of others, while not being able to show what's wrong with it, or why an alternative approach should be superior.
That's Twitter (or just the world we live in)....deal with it.
That's Twitter (or just the world we live in)....deal with it.
5\ Or not? In my case I rather show others why I think work is flawed and how it is flawed exactly. In this case I have been looking into the work of @hcburger1 who repeatedly claimed that his model (medium.com/coinmonks/bitc…) is superior.
6\ Numerous threads can be found where @phraudsta, @100trillionUSD and me are debating with other people about why that model is not superior and how the S2F model until now, still is superior.
7\ After repeatedly having to discuss the same topics over and over again, it becomes a bit dull, and I just chose not to get involved too much in these discussions anymore. It's impossible to win a Twitter argument anyway.
8\ Recently I decided to just test the model and get it over with, as the discussions never seemed to end. Either I would applaud Harold for a great job, or we would be able to take his statements (regarding how his model would be better) with a grain of salt.
9\ Here we are. I just finished another model review.
If you're a fan of PlanB's work, you are probably going to like my conclusion. Let's try to eliminate the noise and stick with high quality. (This is most certainly not meant as a personal offence!)
medium.com/burgercrypto-c…
If you're a fan of PlanB's work, you are probably going to like my conclusion. Let's try to eliminate the noise and stick with high quality. (This is most certainly not meant as a personal offence!)
medium.com/burgercrypto-c…
10\ Shoutout to @coinmetrics for their very nice datasets, which are just out there to download for free. Thanks for sharing!
