A really interesting point made by @JamesKanag at @ukonward last night, who came up with the 'red wall' concept
@JamesKanag @ukonward Everyone is talking about the Red Wall seats as if they are just that - a wall of Labour seats across the country, which happened to vote for Brexit. But that's not what James's original research actually says.
@JamesKanag @ukonward What it says is that they are a bunch of seats which demographically, *should be Tory*. As with others in the South-West, Wales, and North-East the reasons they are not are to do with history and culture, not demographics
@JamesKanag @ukonward He also pointed out that the wall isn't demolished - it's still half-standing. He originally identified 63 seats, of which the Tories have captured 33 - still a hugely impressive performance.
@JamesKanag @ukonward This means that it's doubly important to deliver for these new voters, because there is the potential not just to keep these seats but to win over those with similar make-up by proving you're not just the same old Tories.
@JamesKanag @ukonward What James didn't mention (but I think has before - couldn't find it) is that there should axiomatically be some seats where this pattern inverts - the Tories hold them but demographically 'shouldn't', so need to play defence there as well as offence elsewhere.
@JamesKanag @ukonward At risk of giving others ideas, would be fascinating to get his views (or other experts') on where those seats are...
@JamesKanag @ukonward Aha! Have found @JamesKanag's original tweet, which showed that the Midlands/Staffordshire are the Tories' own 'blue wall' ('blue lagoon' maybe?). Would still be fascinating to see how 2019 demographic shift has changed that
