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A very interesting reporting from the always excellent @martinchulov, about the identity of the new Islamic State leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi, citing officials from two intelligence services.

theguardian.com/world/2020/jan…

A few comments in the following tweets:
@martinchulov The Guardian's reporting confirms that the man behind the nom de guerre of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi is Amir Mohammed Abdul Rahman al-Mawli al-Salbi. He's sometimes identified as Abdullah Qardash or Hajj Abdullah.

But there is a lot of confusion about him, two points in particular:
1) is he really an Arab, or a Turkoman (thus impossible to be a descendent of the Hashemite clan of prophet Mohammed, as he and ISIS claim)

2) is he the same person as Abdullah Qardash. People like Hisham al-Hashemi have been saying they’re different people, one was dead.
After I saw the report yesterday, I spoke to a source who is familiar with any such intel in Iraq. Reliable and tested.

The most crucial point to report is that there is NO consensus in Baghdad about who the ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi. That's important considering...
The Guardian cites officials from two intelligence services, and doesn't say it's definitive. But many readers would assume that's the consensus. It is not. This seems to be the conclusion of some not all, and others would know if it's definitive.
Importantly, the name was long suspected to be Baghdadi's successor, *even before Baghdadi was killed*. So either ISIS appointed one the intel services had known to be the successor, someone was listening in to the VERY narrow circle that appointed successor, or it's speculative.
Three months ago, @WaelEssam77 reported the same details as the Guardian's. The same person.

Before Baghdadi was killed in October, and after, the name of Abdullah Qardash became widely reported as the successor to Baghdadi. That followed the listing of his name by the US Department of State in August... 1/2
The listing by the State Department has also followed a a clearly deliberate leak from Baghdad, through a faked ISIS statement. Before that, there was zero mention (I’m aware of) of the name Qardash or whether he could be a successor.
But his name had previously appeared in two internal ISIS messagings I came across a year earlier.

To go back to the controversy about the clan's Hashemite origins. It's widely known as a Turkoman family, but the clan claims it was a "Turkified" Arab clan
The clan says it's from the Hashemite tribe in Mecca, thus can claim legitimate caliph title. Others insist it's a Turkoman family based in Tal Afar, north of Mosul.

I discussed all this here in Oct (notice the Mawlah name, also mentioned in the Guardian)
So, if the intel officials are right, ISIS's new leader will struggle not just to justify his credentials as a leader of a jihadist organization but he also has to explain the origins of his own clan. "Complicated"
The same exact details were reported in August by Iranian channel Al Alam (targeting Arab audience)

alalamtv.net/news/4404116/%…
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