1/n
Today's thread is everything you wanted to know about the Indian electricity exchange (IEX).
The IEX settles only a small share of India's generation (about 3%) but offers a window into the future of electricity markets in India.
So here goes.
Today's thread is everything you wanted to know about the Indian electricity exchange (IEX).
The IEX settles only a small share of India's generation (about 3%) but offers a window into the future of electricity markets in India.
So here goes.
2/n
Volumes have been on an increasing trend in the IEX.
Prices on the other hand spiked in October 2018, but the price trend has been far more muted than volumes.
This is nominal prices, so it goes without saying that the real price trend has been stable.
Volumes have been on an increasing trend in the IEX.
Prices on the other hand spiked in October 2018, but the price trend has been far more muted than volumes.
This is nominal prices, so it goes without saying that the real price trend has been stable.
3/n
If we look at daily price volatility (which sends price signal that flexibility is needed, for example to integrate growing RE), we can see that this too has been on an increasing trend.
The daily min and max price delta has increased from about 1.5-2 Rs/kWh to 3-4 Rs/kWh
If we look at daily price volatility (which sends price signal that flexibility is needed, for example to integrate growing RE), we can see that this too has been on an increasing trend.
The daily min and max price delta has increased from about 1.5-2 Rs/kWh to 3-4 Rs/kWh
4/n
That's a good thing for price signals for operational flexibility, but certainly not enough to bring in new investment in say batteries or peaking plants.
That's a good thing for price signals for operational flexibility, but certainly not enough to bring in new investment in say batteries or peaking plants.
5/n
One interesting thing is that midday prices have been broadly flat, while cleared volumes have increased substantially.
Is this because solar production is starting to compress midday market prices?
One interesting thing is that midday prices have been broadly flat, while cleared volumes have increased substantially.
Is this because solar production is starting to compress midday market prices?
6/n
In anycase the market value of a generator at midday was about 3 Rs/kWh, compared to, on average but with more seasonal volatility, about 4 Rs/kWh for a generator supplying at night.
Likewise, market prices at night have been on an upwards trend.
In anycase the market value of a generator at midday was about 3 Rs/kWh, compared to, on average but with more seasonal volatility, about 4 Rs/kWh for a generator supplying at night.
Likewise, market prices at night have been on an upwards trend.
7/n
The seasonality of night prices and volumes is also noteworthy.
Does this represent nighttime cooling load, occurring mainly in summer?
Certainly, the market seems to be signaling that there is a highly seasonal and valuable load that occurs at night.
The seasonality of night prices and volumes is also noteworthy.
Does this represent nighttime cooling load, occurring mainly in summer?
Certainly, the market seems to be signaling that there is a highly seasonal and valuable load that occurs at night.
8/n
If we look at hourly average summer prices and volumes, we can see that prices, not necessarily volumes, tend to be depressed at midday, and rise at night.
If we look at hourly average summer prices and volumes, we can see that prices, not necessarily volumes, tend to be depressed at midday, and rise at night.
9/n
On the other hand, winter displays a typical two peak structure for both prices and volumes.
On the other hand, winter displays a typical two peak structure for both prices and volumes.
11/n
While in monsoon prices and volumes peak strongly at night.
While in monsoon prices and volumes peak strongly at night.
12/n
Overall the IEX provides India with a pretty sophisticated infrastructure to take forward electricity markets.
We can see already that it provides sophisticated seasonal and daily price signals.
A notable trend has been the growth in night prices and stagnation in day.
Overall the IEX provides India with a pretty sophisticated infrastructure to take forward electricity markets.
We can see already that it provides sophisticated seasonal and daily price signals.
A notable trend has been the growth in night prices and stagnation in day.
13/n
Open question whether this is driven by solar (not playing directly in the market but through arbitrage).
Needs further analysis to determine whether trends in night prices are determined by demand or supply.
But certainly a sign of things to come with increased solar.
Open question whether this is driven by solar (not playing directly in the market but through arbitrage).
Needs further analysis to determine whether trends in night prices are determined by demand or supply.
But certainly a sign of things to come with increased solar.
14/n
Finally, a warm congratulations needs to go to @RajeshIEX for taking this market forward over the years.
It's definitely a beacon in terms of data availability and transparency, and should attract more attention from the research community.
Finally, a warm congratulations needs to go to @RajeshIEX for taking this market forward over the years.
It's definitely a beacon in terms of data availability and transparency, and should attract more attention from the research community.
