How much do Iowa and New Hampshire tell us about who's going to be the nominee? Next to nothing. Let's take a look at the Iowa and New Hampshire results, and see how they match up with the actual nominees, over the pasty forty years. Follow along in this thread.
#IowaCaucuses
#IowaCaucuses
2016: Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Republican nomination to Donald Trump.
2016: Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire primary, but lost the Democratic nomination to Hillary Clinton.
2012: Rick Santorum won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney.
2008: Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire primary, but lost the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama.
2008: Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Republican nomination to John McCain.
2000: John McCain won the New Hampshire primary, but lost the Republican nomination to George W. Bush.
1996: Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary, but lost the Republican nomination to Bob Dole.
1992: Tom Harkin won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Democratic nomination to Bill Clinton.
1988: Dick Gephardt won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Democratic nomination to Michael Dukakis.
1988: Bob Dole won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Republican nomination to George H.W. Bush.
1984: Gary Hart won the New Hampshire primary, but lost the Democratic nomination to Walter Mondale.
1980: George H.W. Bush won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Republican nomination to Ronald Reagan.
With a singular exception, it’s been more than forty years since the Democratic and Republican nominees both won Iowa and New Hampshire.
These two states simply don't tell us who's going to be the nominee. But the media gets great ratings by massively overhyping their relevance.
These two states simply don't tell us who's going to be the nominee. But the media gets great ratings by massively overhyping their relevance.
