My Authors
Read all threads
In 2016, Bernie got about 50% of the popular vote in Iowa.

In 2020, with a much larger field, he got 26% or 27%.

This time, he got the plurality. But if you view the Democratic party as "Bernie vs. not-Bernie", he's getting much less support this time.
It really depends on whether you think of Warren voters as just sort of slightly deviant Bernie voters.

In Iowa, Warren + Bernie 2020 = about the same as Bernie 2016

But if you think of Warren as her own thing, very different from Bernie, then it's worse news for Bernie.
If this was the GOP, then Bernie could win big with just a 27% plurality. But since it's the Dems, unless he can unite more of the party around him as primary season goes on, seems like we could have a contested convention...
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Noah Smith 🐇

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!