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In 2016, Bernie got about 50% of the popular vote in Iowa.

In 2020, with a much larger field, he got 26% or 27%.

This time, he got the plurality. But if you view the Democratic party as "Bernie vs. not-Bernie", he's getting much less support this time.
It really depends on whether you think of Warren voters as just sort of slightly deviant Bernie voters.

In Iowa, Warren + Bernie 2020 = about the same as Bernie 2016

But if you think of Warren as her own thing, very different from Bernie, then it's worse news for Bernie.
If this was the GOP, then Bernie could win big with just a 27% plurality. But since it's the Dems, unless he can unite more of the party around him as primary season goes on, seems like we could have a contested convention...
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
Actually, about 35 to 45% of wealth is inherited in the U.S. (AOC is thinking of the worldwide figure, which is higher).

35-45% is still too much!

brookings.edu/blog/social-mo…
Ironically the reason America's number is so much lower is capitalism. We have a ton of people who start companies and get insanely rich from that.

But since dynamism is falling and competition decreasing, our inherited wealth % might rise dramatically in the next generation.
In fact, one of the main reasons for a wealth tax is to increase dynamism: heirs lose their inherited wealth, and the only rich people who are able to increase their fortunes are those who keep investing their wealth productively.
Read 5 tweets
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
1/What matters for success - hard work, natural ability, or luck?

This is a mostly meaningless question that doesn't really matter for policy. I'll explain why.
2/"Natural ability vs. luck" is meaningless since natural ability is entirely dependent on luck.

If I'm born with parents who teach me stuff and take care of me, that's luck.

If I'm born next to a factory that wrecks my brain with pollution, that's luck.
3/If I'm born with genes that give me natural advantages, that's luck.

If I'm born into a country that makes companies put iodine in salt, so I don't have a brain-injuring iodine deficiency, that's luck.

Etc. etc. etc.
Read 16 tweets
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
1/Just had someone tell me that almost all of his friends were thinking the same thing, and wouldn't bother to go out and vote for anyone but Bernie...and just wondering why people would think like that...
2/One obvious interpretation is that it's a bluff, to intimidate liberals into voting for Bernie to prevent defections.

Maybe for a few thoughtful, calculating leader types, this is true, but this level of calculation is probably rare.
3/A second possibility is that it's not really serious, just a passionate, in-the-moment expression of emotion. Maybe they'd almost all grudgingly go pull the lever for Biden or Buttigieg. In fact, most Bernie supporters did vote for Hillary in 2016.
Read 9 tweets

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Peter Daou
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#BERNIE SANDERS = THE MORAL CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT

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Beware of the coming repeat of the 2016 theft of the California primary from #Bernie. The CA primary will have an outsize impact on the nomination.
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postcardsforAmerica
@postcards4USA
Well done, #IOWA
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postcardsforAmerica
@postcards4USA
Hey #Iowa! You get to vote in Primary Election on JUNE 5, 2018
Register by May 25: sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/…
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Voter Registration by May 25
Form: sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/…
Mail or Deliver to County Auditor. Addresses here: sos.iowa.gov/elections/audi…
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