One other way to look at our model's view of the universe right now is this: It's quite hard for *anybody* other than the current leaders in national polls, Sanders and Biden, to get a pledged delegate *majority* given that the calendar is quite frontloaded.
Many scenarios where Warren comes back, for instance, or Bloomberg becomes a big factor, involve them performing well on Super Tuesday when there are still several candidates in the race, and then using that as a springboard by getting a further bounce from that.
But by the time Super Tuesday has come around, 38% of delegates will already have been awarded. So if you exit Super Tuesday with say ~30% of the delegates so far, you need to get ~63% of the remaining delegates, which is a very high bar.
To put it another way: to get a *pledged delegate majority* (the number that appears at the top of our page) you need to clear a very high hurdle early in the race. But there are many ways to win the race without clearing that hurdle, especially since nobody may clear the hurdle.
