Thread by @TomKislingbury

Another day, another RB #Thread

When talking about RBs one of my main tenets is that coaches tend to have certain roles for backs - and slot players into those roles.
Rather than building an offense around the capabilities of the players at their disposal.

Hence if you understand how coaches use backs - you can predict how they'll use them in the future.

Connected to this - if a back is used in a certain way by a certain coach it's unlikely the same coach will use him in a different way.
[Unlikely - not impossible]

So I thought I'd look at the RB usage for 2018 and 2019 for teams with the same coaching staff in place.
Let's goooooooo....

The Falcons.
Obviously there was a lot of personnel turnover here [it's RB - that happens] but this is middling.
Sure there's some similarities but it's not identical.
Not much we can learn from this team

Patriots.
Broadly the same rules applied [White the receiving/3rd down back, Michel an early-down rusher] but the degree changed.
I think this is a hit for the theory.
Belichick uses backs very specifically - it's just that a lot of people don't understand how

The Saints.
This is rather striking isn't it?
Even though Ingram and The Tay-Train are quite different they were pretty similarly used.
And Kamara similar YoY too

The Bears.
I shared this yesterday but it's just funny.
Montgomery was used in a strikingly similar way to Howard in '18.
Seems to me the coach has a system and sticks with it.
There was never any intention to use Monty in a bellcow role.

Cowboys.
Duh.
very little difference.
They're committed to their "star RB" and they're not going to change.
It'll be very interesting to see what coach McCarthy does here in 2020.

Panthers are the same.
McCaffrey continued to do absolutely everything.

The Texans.
This actually did change a bit.
I expected them to use BoB's favoured 2-backs-used-in-the-same-way approach but with Duke and Hyde they played to their strengths with Duke as a receiving back and Hyde as a thumper.

Note that even though BoB likes to use backs interchangeably he went out of his way to NOT use Duke Johnson as more of an all-round back.
I know he did that in college. But it's not who he is in the NFL. And that's not going to change.

The Colts.
Mack was an early down rusher.
Hynes a late down receiving back.
Snap.

The Jags.
They were a unicorn in 2019.
They really did change how they used Fournette.
He's one of those very rare times a back is used in a very different way.
he transitioned from being an early down banger to being a 3-down back.
Very cool.

For reference here's rushing attempts in 2017 in his rookie year:
1D 158
2D 96
3D 14
4D 2
48 targets as a rookie.
100 in 2019.

The Chiefs.
Given the players involved and availability [injuries and suspension] this is hard to evaluate.
But the years of Andy Reid loving a lead back like it's 2005 seem to have passed.

The Chargers.
Obviously Gordon missing so much of 2019 is a factor.
Even with that it ended up looking pretty similar to 2018.

The Rams.
This is curious.
The bars look fairly similar but the big difference here is that the Rams threw to their backs a LOT less in 2019.
Bear in mind Gurley did still had about the same share of RB usage year on year.

The Vikes.
A clear uptick in use for Dalvin Cook here.
Staying healthy obviously helped but it seemed this was a deliberate decision anyway.

Giants.
Even with some time missed Saquon still ended up again commanding 80% on every bar here.
Interesting it's so similar to the year before eh?

Rrraiderrrzz.
Josh Jacobs slid in to replace Doug Martin in the early-down rusher role.
Deandre Washington and Jalen Richard were both still 3rd down / receiving backs.

The Eagles.
This season we will again be forced to endure people claiming Doug Pederson will abandon his staunch commitment to a wide-open committee approach and commit to a lead back.
Because he wants to be more old fashioned.
Or something.

The Steelers.
They underwent a fundamental change.
Tomlin had been one of the last lead-back guys - but in 2019 he shifted much more to a committee approach.
It was clearly happening even before the injuries piled up.

Seahawks.
There was quite a big change here.
Instead of Penny earning more of a role Chris Carson actually became much more involved as a receiver in place of Mike Davis from 2018.
Carson had so much volume

The 49ers.
Kyle Shanahan continues to use multiple backs in basically exactly the same way.
Last summer I had so many arguments with people about who was going to be "the goal line back" or have "the Tevin Coleman role".
Nonsense.
They don't exist on this team.

The Bucs.
Under new coaching they showed a clear shift in approach.
They went from Barber being an early-down banger and Jacquizz the receiving back to a much more even split.
Although Ogunbawale was very much a late down receiving option.

The Titans were another team that did change.
In 2018 Dion Lewis was a big part of the rushing attack.
In 2019 he had his role on the ground slashed.
Note how it appears here that Derrick Henry gained a ton of receiving from Lewis...

...that's a bit of a trick of the chart.
If you look at it this way you see Henry still had very, very little use as a target - but Dion Lewis had his targets slashed too.

Washington.
Obviously Gruden has now gone but this was similar YoY.
Another fun offseason argument will be Derrius Guice fans claiming he's going to transform into a receiving weapon who plays on every down.
He had 50 touches on early downs this year.
1 touch on late downs.

The Lions.
Even with injuries this is remarkably similar isn't it?
The Lions have never shown any inclination to using Kerryon Johnson in a bigger role.
He's the Rex Burkhead of this offense IMO.

So to recap:
There were a few teams in 2019 who did change their approach [the Seahawks, Jags and Steelers are the clearest] but the majority of teams with the same coaches used very similar approaches to the year before.

Leopards CAN change their spots.
But expecting it to happen to a specific leopard through sheer optimism is a bit futile.

#END