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#THREAD #RANT on #Turkey foreign policy

Another article (not surprisingly on Al Jazeera) trying to convince us that #Ankara is the victim and Turkish foreign policy is on the defence. The approach is superficial at best and ignores a number of facts >>

aljazeera.com/indepth/opinio…
That Turkey unofficially abandoned regime change in #Syria is not the point: same author, in 2013 Hinnebusch & Tur book wrote "Turkey saw an opportunity to bring abt regime change in Damascus at Iran's expense...it was a matter of geopolitical competition between Ankara & Tehran"
Regime change was an unprecedented policy for Ankara to adopt & a revisionist one; by the author's admission, for the purpose of regional power. 4 interventions later it's inaccurate to say that "Turkey's ability to influence the course of the conflict was reduced to a minimum"
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30.05.2020, #ABD'li bir general Irak'ın Kuzeyine ziyaretini #KürdistanBölgesi olarak isimlendirmiş. #PKK #KCK #PYD #YPG #FETÖ'ye destek veren #ABD'li yetkilinin açıklamasına şaşırdık mı? Hayır
02.12.2004, #ABD Hv.Ulş.K.lığında fotoğrafı çekilen anıttaki görevlerde ne yazıyor?++
#NATO/#Müttefikler arasında işbirliği kapsamında da olsa #ABD'nin kirli planlarını dikkate alarak, yakıt ikmali desteği bile yapılsa, #Suriye'de ortak devriye yapacak kadar işbirliği içerisindeki #Rusya ile özellikle #Karadeniz' konusunda #ABD yüzünden karşı karşıya gelmeyelim.
@veryansintvcom haberi çok daha güzel detaylandırmış.
#ABD'li General #EricHill’in “#Kürdistan” sözü kişisel bir tarif ya da gaf değil. #ABD'nin ve #Pentagon’un resmi politikası.👇👇
veryansintv.com/abdli-komutani…
Read 8 tweets
#Syrie affrontements après une altercation chez un épicier originaire de la #Ghouta de #Damas à #Afrin zone administrée par la #Turquie depuis l’éviction du #YPG et l’installation de déplacées de différentes régions syriennes
Petite embrouille chez l’épicier et les 14,5 sont dans la rue
3 morts dont « l’épicier déplacé de Ghouta et deux enfants » selon sources sur place #Afrin
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1. I remember Nasser. As a boy I thought he was cool.

Imagine an integration of Iraq, Syria & Lebanon as members of the United States of the Levant. Oil, gas, hydro and fresh water with motivated educated populations. None of that is possible under Islamist extremism.
2. Absent an integration, the great powers will forever use this region to compete. Clearly an international integration is a dream. But the federalization of the independent states, particularly Iraq & Syria, would result in a decentralized political system that is
3. self-defending. These nations will not survive outside of a secular society. They will continue to erupt on a regular predictable basis.

I have not seen any study on it so I will comment from my own observation based on mostly anecdotal evidence. Regions of Syria that
Read 7 tweets
1. #Turkey is affiliated with both #ISIS & Al-#Qaeda. Congress should give @RTErdogan days to begin full withdrawal from all of Northern Syria: Afrin to Sere Kaniye. Barring it Turkey's economy & war making power must be sanctioned. @NATO must be anti-imperialist to survive.
2. Turkey's strategic objectives in the invasion were to free #Daesh, seize oil & gas and Syrian territory. The US, Russian and SAA redeployment prevented them from achieving the first two objectives so they were left with just seizing territory, committing mass murder,
3. pillage and genocide.

Since 2014, I have closely observed the #YPG & #YPJ initially and then watched the formation of the #SDF, a combined #Arab, #Christian & #Kurdish force. #SDF is a liberation force. They do no acts consistent with terrorism and only people who need fear
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[Thread] The press conference btw @realDonaldTrump and @EmmanuelMacron today has been fascinating at many levels. The #ISIS part was in particular an excellent summary of the state of play...1/
While many commentators focused on the “#braindead” comment on #NATO in @PedderSophie ’s itw for @theeconomist, most of them missed the topic Pres. #Macron wanted to address with it...2/ economist.com/europe/2019/11…
The real question was : is the spirit of the alliance respected when a member (#Turkey) acts unilaterally in Northeastern Syria, endangers the fight against #ISIS and doing so harms a key security interest of other NATO members ? 3/
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Pour nos amis français qui n'ont rien compris à la crise diplomatique entre la #Turquie et la #France et qui se sentent insultés par les propos d'#Erdogan, voici un récapitulatif pour vous éclairer. C'est à vous de décider à la fin qui a raison et qui a tort.
La #Turquie souffre du terrorisme du #PKK qui a fait non 40 mais "40 mille" morts depuis 1984. Les #Kurdes eux-mêmes (20 millions en Turquie) sont les 1eres victimes de ce groupe terroriste contrairement à ce que vous racontent vos médias.
Les #YPG qu'on vous présente comme "des anges sans ailes" qui combattent Daech sont en réalité la branche syrienne du #PKK reconnu comme une organisation terroriste par la #France elle-même.
Read 11 tweets
#leaked
Here is the list of 76 #ISIS fighters & commanders who are working With Turkish army right now in the war against #Kurds in north #Syria .first section of the list includes the names of ALL ISIS terrorists
#ISIL #DAESH #IslamicState #داعش

yeniyasamgazetesi.info/iste-smo-iceri…
2/ #Leaked
#ISIS Intel has returned to Tal Abyad in N #Syria working with Turkish Army & appeared on Turkish state TV propaganda shown as freedom fighter who misses his home town with tears on his eyes
#ISIL #DAESH #IslamicState #داعش
report link

hawarnews.com/ar/haber/d8a7d…
3/ Evidence :
when joe biden @JoeBiden was vice president of the United States, he told a journalist from a univeristy in #America that #Turkey is supporting jihadi terrorists such as ISIS,etc in Turkey-#Syria border
#ISIL #DAESH #IslamicState #داعش #kurds #trump #erdogan #SDF
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51. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria
#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
1 to 20. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1136642…
21 to 40. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1164175…
Read 279 tweets
#Syrie l’#EI revendique la destruction de camions citernes devant transporter du brut depuis les zones contrôlées par le #YPG vers les zones gouvernementales, affirme dans le com que « le propriétaire est Qaterji », intermédiaire de Damas avec le YPG et sur la liste du Trésor US
Au sujet de #Qaterji qui fut aussi intermédiaire avec l'#EI
Dans cette émission @ICIDesautels pose à juste titre la question du pétrole comme "prétexte"
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1. My early Syria post. @BarackObama ordered the JPADS drop shortly after it. Barack was the @POTUS who did the most to defeat ISIS. @RealDonaldTrump just now did everything he could to bring #ISIS back and he turned it lose on Syrian Kurds & Christians who are fighting ISIS.
2. Where Turkey's ISIS is attacking was ethnic and religiously diverse. Many Christians. Trump let Erdogan cleanse them all.
@Franklin_Graham
@JerryFalwellJr
@JoelOsteen
@JoyceMeyer
@TimTebow
@BillyGraham
@TheBGLibrary
@MyHope
@ChristianPost
@GovMikeHuckabee
@ffweekend
@VP
3. Americans demand @senatemajldr hold the Turkey Sanctions vote passed overwhelmingly in the House. Trump takes money from Turkey. That's simply a fact. We know who Trump cares about and it's not #MAGA, It's #MTMM. Make Trump More Money. @SenateGOP @HouseGOP @LindseyGrahamSC
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50. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria
#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
1 to 20. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1136642…
21 to 40. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1164175…
Read 547 tweets
49. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria
#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
1 to 20. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1136642…
21 to 40. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1164175…
Read 391 tweets
48. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria
#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
1 to 20. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1136642…
21 to 40. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1164175…
Read 501 tweets
AGGIORNAMENTI DAL ROJAVA – SIRIA DEL NORD
GIORNO 16 (24/10/2019) – Ore 10:30

👉 Situazione di apparente calma, ma la Turchia continua ad attaccare per espandere la zona sotto la sua occuazione
👉1 morto e 1 ferito a causa delle mine piantate dai mercenari turchi
👉 La Turchia innalza la sua bandiera sul municipio di Serekaniye
👉 Il sacrificio dei martiri Amara Renas e Berxwedan Amad
👉 I colloqui delle SDF con la Russia dopo l'accordo stretto tra Erdogan e Putin
Sebbene sembri prevalere la “calma” in buone parte dei territori della Siria del Nord, la Turchia continua a lanciare attacchi per espandere la zona sotto la sua occupazione. I mercenari turchi hanno lanciato attacchi nei villaggi ad ovest, est e sud della zona occupata ->
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Turkey and Russia reach an agreement on Syria. Erdogan got more than he bargained for in the US, and then got the green light from the Russians.

Alas, Erdogan has played it well with the two major powers in Syria.
The details of the Turkish-Russian agreement on Syria.

Importantly, the two sides affirm the Adana Agreement with Damascus in the 1990s, permitting Turkey to indefinitely operate inside Syria against the Kurds near its borders.

The two agreed to fight terrorists & separatists
Compare the Putin-Erdogan agreement with the Pence-Erdogan one.
Read 10 tweets
#BreakingNews:

Putin-Erdogan meeting ended, described "difficult". Both men went in length into small details in #Syria.

Press conference now.
Good: #YPG (armed Syrian #Kurds) pulls back 30-32 km wide but that doesn't mean #Turkey will take the area. #Russia is the guarantor and 1999 Adana agreement will be updated.

All in my article.
#Syria #Damascus (#Tehran in the shade) already proposed and discussed the points negotiated today between Presidents Putin and Erdogan during the six hours meeting.

#Turkey wants the Syrian government to speed the constitution reforms, a requested supported by Russia and Iran
Read 6 tweets
Putin meets Erdogan to discuss Syria.
It's clear what Turkey will not be able to take control of a large 'Safe zone' 444 km wide. Also Turkey will not remove Turkish backed militants from the occupied small 'safe zone' about 150 km wide.
What Turkey could offer Russia in these talks we will see in Idlib region soon. Which part of Idlib province Syrian army will take in 2nd phase of its offensive. Area along M-4/ M-5 highways with towns or also included #Idlib city.
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1. I have observed the evolution of the initially #Kurdish #Syrian opposition force from #YPG #YPJ surrounded by #ISIS in #Kobane in the summer of 2014, to the multi-ethnic #SDF then to creation of an Autonomous Administration (AA). I've watched them rebuild much of the area the
2. AA oversees. At no time did I ever perceive that the SDF or the AA expected to be a separate state. As far as I can recall the international borders were always intended to have federal central government control in their design. This is not that, but it is not so far off
3. to miss the chance that this action may stop an imminent genocide. ✌️
Read 3 tweets
Thoughts on the option to retain a few hundred US troops in Deir ez Zour

Mission is still counter-#ISIS but the policy concerns include preventing #Iran, #Assad, & #Russia from seizing the oil fields. Our presence has (so far) had that secondary effect

So what can ~200 guys do?
~200 guys at best gives us a foothold & preserves:

-intel --> high value strikes on #ISIS & #AlQaeda
-some tribal support. At minimum ability to compete 4 it
-some kinetic ability to defend vs #Assad,#Iran,#Russia expansion
-option 2 surge forces again

NOT a long term solution
A small presence of ~200 guys essentially means a single US base in Deir ez Zour. It does not enable us to secure all of the oil fields. The #SDF would be responsible for securing that infrastructure, with - in theory - air and artillery support from our limited residual force
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Using an #America-centric lens to criticize #Turkey for making national security judgements based on a #Turkey-centric lens is analytically dubious.

Whether we like it or not, #Turkey has fought a 40-year #PKK insurgency & sees the #PKK as its No.1 national security threat.
#pt: And FWIW, using Aldar Khalil as the sole source to claim that the #PYD-#PKK relationship is solely defined by "intellectual lineage" & 'sympathy with one another's political goals' is analytically disingenuous.

Perhaps instead read the #PYD itself:

#pt: If the #PYD's very own website (deleted - but archived - after teaming up with the U.S. military in 2014) wasn't enough, take the public assessments of U.S. government's dedicated National CounterTerrorism Center (part of the Intelligence Community):

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