Thread by @JoeyIckes

The thing that absolutely too few people understand regarding the Dak situation right now, is that Dak literally has ALL the leverage.

Let’s talk about why...

Thread Me #afterdark

First of all, Dak knows that barring an absolutely catastrophic injury, he is guaranteed between $60-70M over the next two years just by playing on the tag 2x.

He also knows that it’s extremely unlikely DAL will tag him 3rd time bc that winds up being like $50m+ in 2022. So worst case scenario for him, is he makes ~$60M in 2020-2021, and then signs somewhere in FA for like $45M a year w/ $150M gtd in 2022.

In that FA scenario he will basically get to pick his team from somewhere around 1/3 to 1/2 of the league that will be in the bidding.

Along with that scenario he knows that leaves DAL in the worst place an organization can be in the NFL, QB-less...

So the worst case for him is he becomes the highest earning player in the NFL ever and he gets to pick his team, and the organization is up S creek.

So some fans answer will be “then trade him to crappy team X (CIN, MIA, DET etc) and get their first rd picks and use those to pick a QB.

But the problem is, Dak can’t be traded unless and until he signs his tender.

So he essentially has veto power over any trade DAL makes

And why would he sign up to go to one of those teams and be part of a rebuild?

If he just waits out the draft without signing his tender, and gets to camp before signing and reporting, DAL is left unable to trade him, and stuck w/ no viable replacement should they try.

So again, Dak holds all the leverage...

In his best case scenario, he probably signs something like a 4 year $148M contract with ~$100M gtd.

Then in 2024 he is a FA again, with a chance to take another bite of the apple after Mahomes, Watson, Jackson etc all raise the market

If DAL wants to do a long deal in the 6-7 year range (a guess based on previous deals and rumors) they are gonna have to blow the QB market out of the water in re: to AAV, Total gtd, Full gtd, First 2 years cash etc. bc they’ll be asking him to give up the 2nd big contract

And that’s where the conundrum lies... Stephen comes across as the type of negotiator who refuses to acknowledge when the other party holds the leverage, and will simply wait out a situation hoping for the leverage to flip until a hard deadline forces his hand.

So either DAL can be the team that makes the major market reset at QB, or they can sacrifice the added length, but they can’t have it all their way, and when that’s the case, nothing usually gets done until it absolutely has to.