Thread by @JoeyIckes

Alright let’s dive into this and break this down...

You know where this is headed...

🗣THREAD ME!!!!

https://twitter.com/joeyickes/status/1094982718297915393

Ok so Todd projected a 6-year $168M extension with $68M gtd...

Dak basically has a $2M cap # in 2019.

For the sake of our analysis we’ll assume a $45M signing bonus which will be the ball park amount.

So effectively we have a 7 year $170M contract with $70M gtd.

Let’s imagine it looks something like this...

The 6 NEW years on the deal are $28M per yr. but adding the 7th yr at only $2M means it’s effectively $24.2M per year.

That = VALUE for Dak...

But it goes even deeper...

We know DAL likes to put big base salary numbers in the first couple of years of a contract to let them restructure to get extra money if they need it...

So let’s fast fwd 13 months to Mar 2020.

DAL could restructure $23M of the $25M base and push it out over 5 years, dropping his 2020 cap # by almost $19M all the way to $15.6M.

That would be the lowest cap hit of QBs currently on vet contracts in 2020.

And bc you did the deal in 2019 you have almost no dead money if you move on from Dak in the last 2 years of his contract, even after the restructure.

So let’s fast forward ANOTHER 12 months to March 2021. It’s a new CBA, so maybe the cap flattens out a bit like it did at the beginning of the last one, you can go back to Daks deal, restructure it again and drop his # from $35.6 down to $19.6 a cool $16M savings.

That $19.6M would again, be the lowest cap # of QBs currently on vet contracts in 2021.

And again, bc you did the deal now, you have the “7th” year, so you get the extra year to push that bonus out to, and you still have freedom to move on after 2023 if you choose.

So effectively by doing the deal in 2019, you are able to keep Dak at a significant discount from the vet QB mkt in terms of cap hit for 2019, 2020, and 2021, while only really tying yourself to him with what seems now like a premium QB cap hit for 2 years 2022-2023.

That lets you eat the early and expensive years of deals for Tank, Amari, Byron, Zeke, etc etc. while you still have a QB counting below market value.

And by the time 2022-2023 rolls around, the QB market will likely be even more astronomical than it is now.

Fin.