Thread by @TimInHonolulu

1. Besides talking points and "mo", what's actually in play in Nevada Caucuses? From Wiki.
"Of the 36 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, 23 are allocated on the basis of the results of the precinct caucuses, with between 5 and 6 allocated to each of the

2. state's four congressional districts. The precinct caucuses also elect delegates to county conventions based on the results of the vote in each precinct. Of the remaining 13 pledged delegates, another 5 will be allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates)

3. in addition to 8 at-large pledged delegates, but it is not yet known whether delegates to the national convention will be distributed proportionally based on the popular vote in the caucuses or the number of county delegates."

4. From @ballotpedia: "In 2020, there will be 4,750 delegates: 3,979 pledged delegates and 771 automatic delegates—more commonly known as superdelegates.

To win the Democratic nomination, a presidential candidate must receive support from a majority of the pledged delegates

5. on the first ballot: 1,991 pledged delegates."

So if the field stays this large, IMO no candidates will get to 1,991 on the first ballot. Bernie got his way and the super delegates have to sit out the first ballot. But when Bernie fails on the first ballot, as he likely will

6. with this large a field, 771 super delegates will be freed in the second vote. I would expect that Bernie will be defeated in that second round setting off another "you stole the election" from the Bernie supporters. I would counter that the rules were set by Sanders.

7. When the candidates were asked how they would handle a loss on the first ballot, only Sanders, who was against this in 2016, said the plurality should win. So it's going to be a brokered convention and I'm going to try to be a Hawaii delegate. 😎