Thread by @davekarpf

It really looks like Bernie is going to be the nominee. Hats off to the organizing his campaign has done. It’s really impressive.

I’m terrified of what this means for the general election though. I hope I’m wrong. I hope you can throw this thread in my dumb face one day. (1/x)

First, two notes of self-caution. I’m probably overreacting. This is my fear speaking right now.

As @JakeMGrumbach pointed out yesterday, it’s waaaay too easy to overestimate electability. The real differences are small. (2/x)

https://twitter.com/jakemgrumbach/status/1231313734099857408?s=21

https://twitter.com/jakemgrumbach/status/1231313734099857408

Second, I suck at predictions.

I thought Trump would be easy to beat. I thought Kerry would win in ‘04 because of Dem turnout.

I’m wrong about at least some part of this. I don’t know which part.

(3/x)

But I think Sanders is going to face three serious headwinds in the general election. There’s the boomer problem, the media problem, and the intraparty problem.

I think they’re all going to be especially hellish. He can win, but each will make it much tougher.
(4/x)

The boomer problem:

Bernie Sanders is not *that* kind of socialist. Not the kind that you remember from the Cold War era.

But the election is going to be spent repeating this over and over and over again.

They’ll call any Dem a socialist, but it’ll resonate here. (5/x)

Sanders makes this a “choice” election instead of a “referendum” election.

It lets Trump lean hard on “but look at your retirement funds! Are you going to risk this economy?”

That’s not the ground id choose to fight Trump on in an inevitably close election.

(6/x)

The media problem: Chris Matthews has lost his mind, but he might be a harbinger or things to come.

I worry we’re going to spend July-November watching major media outlets “yada yada yada” past the last four years of brazen corruption.
(7/x)

This will lead to inevitable left wing outrage against the biased corporate media. But it will also make it much harder to win.

Trump will be normalized because he’s now the status quo. Sanders will be represented as the risky departure from the status quo.
(8/x)

That isn’t *fair* or *right*, but it is *predictable.* and, in a close election, it’s going to be an extra headwind.

The intraparty problem:

Every vulnerable senator and purple-seat rep will face a barrage of “will you denounce [insert unfair caricature of Sanders’s policy position or half-sentence response]?”

Any time they don’t stand fully behind the caricature, we’ll get... (10/x)

...a news cycle about Dems in disarray. (The Rs, on the other hand, will be unified behind their authoritarian clownfigurehead)

That’ll hurt our chances in the House and Senate, and also weigh down the Sanders campaign in news cycles that, at a minimum, *dont help.*
(11/x)

The “resistance moms” who were central to winning the house in 2018 will ultimately vote for Sanders, but they’ll volunteer much less hard.

Replacing them with an energized young electorate, I fear, will be less than a 1:1 replacement.
(12/x)

Meanwhile we create the highest-possible-stakes test of whether class solidarity outweighs racial animus among the mass American public.

Sanders will offer a vision of inclusive populism. Trump will offer a vision of blacks and brown people “getting free stuff.”
(12/x)

When was the last time you looked around and remarked, “huh, turns out America is LESS racist than I thought?”

(Spoiler: it was in November 2008, wasn’t it? That was the last time.)

(14/x)

So anyway, yeah, I’m very worried. And, while I’m sure I’m wrong about something, I don’t see what it is. And these are general election fears, so winning pluralities of primary and caucus-goers isn’t helping them go away.
(15/x)

Every Dem candidate would face headwinds. But I think Sanders faces the biggest headwinds. And I don’t think American Democracy survives four more years of Trump. It’s a terrifying risk.

So if you wonder why I’m in the corner telling gallows humor jokes, that’s why.

(Fin)