Portfolio summary - Feb-end
$AYX $BABA $BZUN $CRWD $DOCU $ESTC $GSX $LK $LVGO $MELI $PDD $PINS $ROKU $SE $SPCE $SQ $STNE $TAL $TCEHY $TWLO $UBER $WORK $ZS 1833 1717 HK
Return since 1. 1. '19 (when I began posting here) -
Portfolio +48.97%
$ACWI +12.75%
$SPX +17.85%
Contd..
$AYX $BABA $BZUN $CRWD $DOCU $ESTC $GSX $LK $LVGO $MELI $PDD $PINS $ROKU $SE $SPCE $SQ $STNE $TAL $TCEHY $TWLO $UBER $WORK $ZS 1833 1717 HK
Return since 1. 1. '19 (when I began posting here) -
Portfolio +48.97%
$ACWI +12.75%
$SPX +17.85%
Contd..
2) YTD return -
Portfolio +34.14%
$ACWI (-)8.72%
$SPX (-)8.56%
Portfolio currently hedged
Portfolio activity -
New positions - $BZUN $PDD $UBER $WORK
Closed positions - $FB $OCFT $PYPL
Contd...
Portfolio +34.14%
$ACWI (-)8.72%
$SPX (-)8.56%
Portfolio currently hedged
Portfolio activity -
New positions - $BZUN $PDD $UBER $WORK
Closed positions - $FB $OCFT $PYPL
Contd...
3) Commentary -
February was a very strong month for my portfolio; at one point I was up almost 45% YTD but due to the ongoing panic in the markets, ended up giving back some of the gains.
Despite the pullback, my portfolio's YTD return is +34.14% and given the recent...
February was a very strong month for my portfolio; at one point I was up almost 45% YTD but due to the ongoing panic in the markets, ended up giving back some of the gains.
Despite the pullback, my portfolio's YTD return is +34.14% and given the recent...
4)...stock market swoon, I'm very satisfied with the performance.
During the month, I picked up shares in a bunch of high-growth companies and closed out my long-term positions in $FB $PYPL (which I'd held for years) - I still love those businesses but sold due to slowing...
During the month, I picked up shares in a bunch of high-growth companies and closed out my long-term positions in $FB $PYPL (which I'd held for years) - I still love those businesses but sold due to slowing...
5)...growth and even weaker outlook.
Finally, during the month, I also closed out my position in $OCFT because its operating results (widening losses and cash burn) spooked me and it dawned on me that perhaps I'd made a mistake. So, I decided not to stay wrong.
The world is...
Finally, during the month, I also closed out my position in $OCFT because its operating results (widening losses and cash burn) spooked me and it dawned on me that perhaps I'd made a mistake. So, I decided not to stay wrong.
The world is...
6)...passing through a very tough period and the coronavirus is a serious potential threat; but since I am not an infectious diseases specialist, can't really say much about the subject.
In terms of outlook, it is clear to me that the virus and the quarantine measures...
In terms of outlook, it is clear to me that the virus and the quarantine measures...
7)...will affect the global business activity for a few months and in IMHO the areas which will be the hardest hit are airlines, bars, cinemas, cruise liners, energy, event management, hotels, restaurants, sporting events, travel agents and big ticket consumer discretionary...
8) The markets are well aware of these risks which explains the abrupt re-rating over the past seven trading sessions.
At this stage, I don't know for sure whether we have seen the correction low but the extreme fear which seems to have gripped the market and the quick...
At this stage, I don't know for sure whether we have seen the correction low but the extreme fear which seems to have gripped the market and the quick...
9)...decline of approximately 17% in a matter of days seems to suggest that we are at least near a low but what do I know?
Forecasting the market's zigs and zags is extremely difficult which is why I now rely on a 100% systematic hedging strategy. Fortunately, my hedges...
Forecasting the market's zigs and zags is extremely difficult which is why I now rely on a 100% systematic hedging strategy. Fortunately, my hedges...
10)...kicked in during the early stages of the ongoing pullback and this explains my portfolio's robustness over the past few days.
In terms of my portfolio, I feel that I own a bunch of dominant, rapidly growing businesses in relatively stable industries; thus one hopes they..
In terms of my portfolio, I feel that I own a bunch of dominant, rapidly growing businesses in relatively stable industries; thus one hopes they..
11)...will weather this storm and come out on the other side.
My portfolio is heavily concentrated in ecommerce, education, payments and software and I feel that no matter what happens to the world economy, people will continue to educate their children, buy stuff online, pay..
My portfolio is heavily concentrated in ecommerce, education, payments and software and I feel that no matter what happens to the world economy, people will continue to educate their children, buy stuff online, pay..
12)...for things by using their online wallets, receive online payments and also continue to use software.
In fact, no matter how bad things become, I doubt very much whether enterprises will rip out their cybersecurity or other software applications so at the very least...
In fact, no matter how bad things become, I doubt very much whether enterprises will rip out their cybersecurity or other software applications so at the very least...
13)...these companies will retain their existing revenue base (whilst the same cannot be said for most of the other industries).
A lot of people on here believe that my portfolio is super risky but because of the stable nature of these businesses and recurring revenues, I...
A lot of people on here believe that my portfolio is super risky but because of the stable nature of these businesses and recurring revenues, I...
14)...just don't see it that way.
The vast majority of my net-worth is invested in my portfolio, thus I spend a lot of time thinking about risk (which also explains why I hedge).
In all honesty, apart from the lofty valuations, I view these businesses as quite safe/sticky...
The vast majority of my net-worth is invested in my portfolio, thus I spend a lot of time thinking about risk (which also explains why I hedge).
In all honesty, apart from the lofty valuations, I view these businesses as quite safe/sticky...
15) Personally, I don't like highly cyclical businesses which are prone to booms and busts (big surges and drop offs in revenue) i.e. autos, energy, capital goods, materials, semis, shipping etc. and this is because I perceive them as very risky!
The market seems to agree...
The market seems to agree...
16)...with my assessment because during the ongoing swoon, (by and large) my holdings have held up better than the broad market.
At this stage, I have no idea when the troubles will be behind us but do know that at some point, this virus will disappear...
At this stage, I have no idea when the troubles will be behind us but do know that at some point, this virus will disappear...
17)...and normalcy will return. When that happens, my companies will thrive and hopefully reward long-term, loyal shareholders.
So, I'm staying fully invested although my umbrella (portfolio hedges) is currently up and protecting me from the storm.
The end 🙏
So, I'm staying fully invested although my umbrella (portfolio hedges) is currently up and protecting me from the storm.
The end 🙏
