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The model is back on! It's quite good for Biden; 88 percent majority chances. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
Here's an explainer on why Bernie's position is tough (not impossible but *tough*) as well as a change to the model which reflects the potential for increased volatility in the polls over the next few weeks (this change helps Bernie's chances slightly). fivethirtyeight.com/features/after…
One other caveat: the model is making a lot of guesses about how Super Tuesday and the recent dropouts will affect the polls. There hasn't actually been much polling yet, so we should know a lot more in a couple days.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Yeah, as I've done more reading, I think this is something people need to be realistic about. Although even 2 weeks of shutting everything down could make a *LOT* of difference, we're probably (high uncertainty) talking about longer before things get back to even semi-normal.
Presumably, things will start to open back up in roughly the inverse order in which they're shut down (so, like, restaurants and movie theaters at *half* capacity might be some of the first things to open back up; large gatherings would take longer).
I do think businesses should be thinking about how to minimize crowding and queuing along with other interventions for a possibly long period of not-closed-but-not-normal-either.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I've said it before, but people should be mindful that coronavirus statistics are lagging indicators. In Wuhan, a typical case showed up in the data ~2 weeks after the person initially became symptomatic. The lag could be longer in counties without good testing (e.g. the USA).
This has two obvious implications:

1) When cases are on the upswing, as they obviously are in the US right now, things are almost certainly MUCH worse than they appear from the official data.

But also:

2) Once things start to turn around, it will be ~2 weeks before we know it.
In general, I don't think it's super helpful for people to tweet out statistics on cases/deaths without providing context on where a country is in the scope of its epidemic.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
As you can probably tell my whole coronavirus take is basically "there's more uncertainty in all directions than people assume" and IMO the flaw with the UK approach is that it relies on a particular set of assumptions that might or might not be true.
The most important of those UK assumptions being regarding it as inevitable that a large fraction (40%+) of the population eventually gets coronavirus. From what I've read elsewhere, we don't know enough to say it's inevitable.
With that said I *do* think it's good the UK recognizes there are limits to how much social distancing people are going to tolerate and for how long. There are things people will tolerate for *weeks* that they won't tolerate for *months*.
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
FiveThirtyEight forecast is pretty interesting and bold right now (and I'm not saying it's wrong!) making Biden a very narrow favorite in TX, VA, NC, and across the South, in spite of the polls, by anticipating a post-SC bounce for Biden projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
The majority of my replies think it's crazy, but I think it's credible, even if I'm not sure it's 'right,' and I think it's consistent with the last month, whether it's the Klobucharge or the post-IA Bloomberg surge. A lot of moderate vote seem willing to back the hot hand
Does it go too far? I mean, quite possibly but I have no idea, and I'd guess we won't know until Tuesday, with so few polls likely to hit during that narrow window. And even if they do, the Klobucharge is a reminder that it may not fully show up in the pre-election polls anyway
Read 7 tweets
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Teri Kanefield
@Teri_Kanefield
(Thread) Good news & Bad news

Good news: Trump is losing

Bad news: He will up the ante on the racism, xenophobia, and hate. The white supremacists will get more desperate.

In other words, things will get worse before the election.
nytimes.com/2019/08/05/us/…

These are related.
1/ First, the good news:

Here is 538’s approval tracking of Trump over time (top) projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…

Here’s civiqs (bottom) civiqs.com/results/approv…

They are roughly the same.
2/ Here’s the Civiqs numbers translated into electoral college result (attached):

There is talk (in Texas!) of Texas turning blue.

Hurd’s decision to quit sent shock waves through the Texas GOP: theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Read 20 tweets
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Claire Berlinski
@ClaireBerlinski
Back to Bernie, who is now explaining how he plans to fix the problem. His first solution is raising the minimum wage.

He has a passage I recognize here: His discussion of Wal-Mart is almost the same as Warren's.
And indeed, when I read it in Warren's book, I checked the footnote and found she'd sourced it to Bernie. It's close enough that in an academic context, I'd call it plagiarism. But this isn't that context.
If you're reading along, go to p. 24-25 of Warren's book, compare to p. 223, Bernie. "Walmart the Welfare Queen," Warren; "The Walmart family has to get off welfare," Bernie.
Read 20 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
THREAD
Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
Buttigieg said that "the riskiest thing we could do is try to play it safe.... In these times, Democrats can no more promise to take us back to the 2000s or 1990s than conservatives can take us back to the 1950s.”

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… …
#Warren: “Some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks & nudges.If they dream at all, they dream small.Some say if we’d all just calm down, Republicans will come to their senses. Our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over.”
Read 9 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
Read 5 tweets

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