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On @270toWin's delegate calculator, I sketched 2 simplistic, best-case for Biden Super Tuesday scenarios. In both, Sanders still gets a few more delegates, though presumably the resulting narrative wouldn't be so favorable (esp. since CA will get called late). Here's my math...
@270toWin In one, Biden wins SC 40-25 over Bernie, and that translates to identical wins in AL, AR, NC, OK, TN, TX, VA. Bernie does the reverse in CA, CO, ME, UT, and crushes VT. He wins MA by 1 over Warren, w/Biden at 20. Klob over Bernie by 5 in MN...
@270toWin In the 2nd, Biden wins SC 30-20 over Bernie, Warren at 15., Similar application for AL, AR, NC, OK, TN, TX, VA, reverse for Bernie in CA, CO, ME, UT. VT, MA and MN same as Scenario 1...
@270toWin In the 40-25 scenario, SC + Super Tuesday delegates:

Sanders: 679
Biden 642
Klobuchar: 40
Warren: 31

In the 30-20-15 scenario:

Sanders: 514
Biden: 488
Warren: 285
Klobuchar: 40
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Bill Scher
@billscher
LONG DECADE-IN-REVIEW SELF-PROMOTION THREAD: This was the decade that my views on how to achieve liberal social change, changed.

It began with the research and writing of this oped in 2011, published by the NYT in 2012 nytimes.com/2012/07/01/opi…
That piece was largely ignored at the time. (Published today, it would have destroyed my mentions with copious "neoliberal" insults.)
But the process of writing it sparked a new interest in history and a re-thinking of old assumptions, which put me on a different path from the professional, online activist world I was then in.
Read 33 tweets
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Bill Scher
@billscher
This analysis is all politics and no governing, and the political analysis is bad. A short thread...
1. Democrats, in general, want to spend more, and Republicans less. This deal spends more, despite a Republican president and Senate. On governing, a win for Dems.
2. The political analysis presumes whichever party holds the presidency when the debt limit ceiling is reaching is being handed a live grenade.

This is nonsense. Debt limit "hostage takings" are rare, and do not necessarily succeed...
Read 11 tweets
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Bill Scher
@billscher
While we're looking back at Democrats and race in the 1970s, I shall now repost/update a 2016 tweetstorm that I never properly threaded about the 1976 Jimmy Carter campaign...
...In the wake of Hillary Clinton's "deplorables" comment, I had written about the history of Democratic presidential candidates winking at white racial grievance... politico.com/magazine/story…
...I included this controversy during the 1976, when Carter defended whites "who are trying to maintain the ethnic purity of their neighborhoods" and opposed forced integration by the federal government
Read 16 tweets

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ero 🔞 namjoon voice: just eat me
@eron_less
still thinking about this, and now thinking about taehyung making a copy of jimin's playlist so he can listen to it whenever he wants. putting on headphones when he jerks off at night and imagines it's jimin playing these songs because he's with taehyung this time.
taehyung playing it without headphones one day, quiet enough that he thinks it'll be fine -- or maybe he just doesn't think. until the next time he runs into jimin in the hallway and jimin makes a joke about his taste in music, and he can send taehyung that playlist if he wants.
taehyung has a crisis over this but he gives jimin his contact id anyway, and jimin texts him a link to his playlist, and it's actually way longer that taehyung thought, wow, jimin's just never gotten to the end of it before while taehyung has been listening.
Read 34 tweets
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Jason Johnson
@DrJasonJohnson
Biden, flawed as he is, has led the Dem field since joining the race, AND has a huge lead w/ black voters. The question shouldn't just be WHY he has the lead but WHY Sanders/ Warren/Pete haven't been able to pry black folks away from him. That's the question few want to answer
After Trump black voters don't TRUST white Democrats. They saw a nation flip the scrip and elect a white nationalist president as a temper tantrum after the first black one. Black voters are the most strategic voters in America and they see what's going on for 2020
Nobody in their right mind thinks Biden is the BEST candidate. Stumbles in debates, gaffes etc. But he's still leading. That is more an indictment of Warren/Sanders/Pete than it is about Biden's own weaknesses. Nobody wants to admit that part
Read 8 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
As I first wrote several weeks ago would happen, the Democratic debates have restructured the polling, putting, as I predicted, @KamalaHarris and @ewarren within striking distance of @JoeBiden.

Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%

cnn.com/2019/07/01/pol… …
Months of assertions that #Biden was "inevitable" have been eviscerated. Unable to stand up to #Harris at the debates, Biden appeared tired, confused and unprepared, despite having been kept away from major events for weeks by his handlers. Harris has been campaigning daily.
#Warren won the first debate handily, with only @JulianCastro and @CoryBooker offering any other strong moments in the two hour debate.
The new rankings put #Harris and Warren in the lead for most electable and many are already talking about Harris/Warren as the 2020 ticket.
Read 11 tweets
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Matt Delmont
@mattdelmont
"Biden takes flak on race and busing. But his views may still mirror America’s" by @isaacstanbecker. This is a good piece that quotes historian Brett Gadsden, whose book "Between North and South" is the best place to start to understand Biden and "busing" washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/06…
To understand the #DemDebate2 exchange between #KamalaHarris & Joe #Biden, you have to understand that "busing" has been used since the 50s as a code word to oppose school integration. I cover this history in "Why Busing Failed" & the book's website whybusingfailed.com/anvc/why-busin…
White parents in the North organized after Brown v Board to maintain segregated schools, using euphemisms like "busing" & "neighborhood schools" to maintain segregated schools without explicitly saying they didn't like black or Latinx students #DemDebate2 whybusingfailed.com/anvc/why-busin…
Read 10 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets

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