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Final Super Tuesday win probabilities. (Only listing folks >=5%)

CA: Sanders 76%, Biden 22%
TX: Biden 55%, Sanders 43%
NC: Biden 95%
VA: Biden 98%
MA: Sanders 51%, Warren 25%, Biden 20%
MN: Sanders 53%, Klobuchar 24%*, Biden 19%

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…

* Yes, really.
CO: Sanders 69%, Biden 20%, Bloomberg 6%, Warren 5%
TN: Biden 68%, Sanders 25%, Bloomberg 5%
AL: Biden 92%, Sanders 5%
OK: Biden 78%, Sanders 18%
AR: Biden 69%, Bloomberg 17%, Sanders 12%
UT: Sanders 59%, Biden 28%, Bloomberg 11%
ME: Sanders 68%, Biden 23%, Bloomberg 7%
VT: Sanders >99%
American Samoa: Biden 36%, Sanders 36%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 8%. (Note: the model may have no idea what it's doing with the territories.)
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Posted for "amusement", not as an endorsement: the prediction market PredictIt now says that Hillary Clinton, not Bernie Sanders, is the 2nd-most-likely Democratic nominee. predictit.org
Given the age of Biden and Sanders, I think it's reasonable for prediction markets to consider the small but nonzero possibility that a health problem could force the nominee to leave the race. That's something our model does *not* account for, BTW.
There's also still an outside chance (which our model *does* consider) of a no-majority scenario.

But there's no particular reason to think that HILLARY CLINTON would be nominated in either of those cases.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Quite a spread in Michigan polls but they all point to Biden well ahead:

Monmouth: Biden +15
Mitchell Research & Communications: Biden +21
EPIC-MRA: Biden +24
Concord Public Opinion Partners: Biden +30
Target Insyght: Biden +41

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
Biden's lead in our polling average (+25) is actually a bit larger than Clinton's in 2016 (+21). So this would be a bigger upset. Always possible! But... the demographics of Michigan don't look nearly as good for the 2020 version of Sanders's coalition as the 2016 version.
YouGov with a more modest Biden +12 in Michigan, although it looks like a rather small sample size. So we've got a spread from +12 to +41. news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
People (including me to some extent) interpreted head-to-head polls showing Sanders tied with/slightly ahead of Biden as being good news for Sanders. But not sure they were given that those polls were taken at the height of Sanders's bounce and Biden's slump...
If Sanders was only leading Biden by a couple points in head-to-head polls at a time after NH when a lot of when national polls were like Sanders 28, Biden 16 (i.e. Sanders +12) that suggests that Biden *was* set to benefit from the field consolidating.
Overall, your analysis of this primary will tend to have been stronger if you *did* believe in ideological "lanes" than if you didn't. The polls aside, the actual behavior of voters has been rather emphatic on that point.
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T. Greg "A Far-Leftist Lawyer" Doucette
@greg_doucette
Even if Sanders wins Michigan, he needs to win it by 20%+ to meaningfully eat into Biden's delegate lead
Yeah, but 1️⃣ the remaining big states are Biden-friendly and 2️⃣ because of the DNC's proportional allocation rules, you have to win by big margins to catch up if you're behind

True, but the Florida primary isn't until the 17th. The next debate is the 15th, and at least in theory Sanders could demolish Biden there

Read 39 tweets
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Sanders avoided a knockout blow, but the results were good enough for Biden that Sanders now needs a decisive turn in the race, this time to his favor, to prevent Biden from claiming an insurmountable lead. Sound familiar? nytimes.com/2020/03/04/ups…
Now that I'm awake, maybe one simple way to think about it is like this:
The early vote saved Sanders from a Clinton-Sanders '16 Super Tuesday style wipe out.
But going forward, Clinton-Sanders Super Tues. type delegate margins would quickly put this out of play
And unlike '16, the map might get worse for Bernie rather than better, now that his strength is so concentrated among Latino voters. With so much of the Southwest in, his list of really great states starts getting pretty thin
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Jake Morphonios 🇺🇸 🇵🇸 🇹🇭 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
@morphonios
Thread: Jake's explanation of what to expect to happen in the 2020 Democrat primaries... There are a total of 3,979 pledged delegates in the primaries, with 1,919 needed to win a majority and secure the party nomination for president.
In addition to pledged delegates, there are 771 superdelegates at stake who can vote for any candidate they choose - but only in the second round of convention voting if no candidate wins a majority on in the first round.
Following the first round, because superdelegates can be lobbied for their votes & because party rules allow candidates who earned smaller numbers of delegates to "offer" their delegates to another candidate, the nominating convention is then considered a "brokered" convention.
Read 12 tweets
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Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) This thread compiles state-by-state polling for each of the Democratic presidential candidates using the Real Clear Politics average, ranking each candidate's placements from best to worst. I hope you will RETWEET this snapshot of where the race stands pre-Super Tuesday.
NOTES FOR MEDIA:

1⃣ KLOBUCHAR is done. She's only better than sixth (or tied for fifth) in her home state.
2⃣ STEYER has no strength anywhere but SC.
3⃣ BUTTIGIEG has little strength except in states bordering those he already ran in.
4⃣ WARREN is more competitive than you say.
BERNIE SANDERS

NATIONAL: 1⃣

CA: 1⃣
CO: 1⃣
IL: 1⃣
MA: 1⃣
ME: 1⃣
NC: 1⃣
NY: 1⃣
TX: 1⃣
UT: 1⃣
VA: 1⃣
WA: 1⃣
WI: 1⃣

MN: 2⃣
PA: 2⃣
SC: 2⃣

FL: 3⃣
OK: 3⃣

STATES WITH ONLY ONE POLL THIS YEAR:

MD: 1⃣
MI: 1⃣
NJ: 1⃣

GA: 2⃣
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͏Postcards4USA🆘 #DemCast
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Volunteer. Help take back the vote. #Elections2020
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