Thread by @Nate_Cohn

We're going to start getting early vote in California--here, ballots received well ahead of the election--and I think you can expect it to be pretty bad for both Bernie and Biden compared to whatever they finish

These are older voters, and therefore tough for Sanders.
OTOH, they're early voters, and therefore tough for Biden.
Wouldn't shock me if you started off with something crazy like Sanders narrowly leading Bloomberg and Biden back in fourth

After the early vote, you start getting the Election Day vote. This is demographically good for Bernie in California, but it also reflects the post-Biden surge.
So both should earn a higher vote share, as you get the two-way race we've seen elsewhere in the country

This Election Day vote will take hours to count, and might not be in until tomorrow AM, when the counties will finally say "100 percent counted."
But it's not even close to done.

Next comes the late mail ballots and then provisionals. This could be 35+ percent of the vote, and it'll still be outstanding at this time tomorrow night.
This vote should also be quite good for Sanders and Biden.

Here again, the same basic dynamic: a demographically good vote for Sanders, the late deciders that should be good for Biden.
How to balance it? Hard to say; my instinct is both improve their vote share but Bernie does so by more, compared to the count tmro night.