Thread by @JohnFBruno

Early tomorrow 🌅Ill b tweeting @ the soon-to-b-released IPCC Ocean & Cryosphere report 🐟Also happy to answer questions etc from journos 2day/tmw via email or DM @ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral PS, Im a Prof @unc & a marine ecologist who works on the impacts of ocean heating on marine ecosystems. Im not an author of this report, so will be commenting / explaining / providing context as an outside expert. I was an author of the recent US National Climate Assessment.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC Morning friends☕️Waiting on the @IPCC_CH to release the SROCCC

Some background: The 104 authors (31 female, 73 male) include some big names in the field of ocean science eg Drs Lisa Levin, Hans-Otto Pörtner, William Cheung

archive.ipcc.ch/report/authors…

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH The authors, mainly academic scientists (WHO DID THIS WORK FOR FREE!), evaluated/synthesized thousands of peer-reviewed scientific articles eg on time-series data (repeated measurements at one place) to assess change in the environment and to test hypotheses about causality.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH The full report is available here ipcc.ch/srocc/download…

Its 100s of pages of single-spaced technical text w countless IPCC-esque graphics and tables😪(Don't worry, I find many of them hard to understand too). But this is one very thorough document!

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH Setting the stage is an overview of human-caused physical and chemical changes to the ocean (not plural-there is just one ocean!) and "cryosphere" (think ice on land and sea)

-> ocean heating, melting ice at sea and on land, reduction on O2 in sea water "deoxygenation" etc

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH And a critical point *Nearly all the additional heat accumulating on earth due to greenhouse gas emissions is going into the ocean!*

Staggering right?! 😯Even the deepest parts are warming.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH A neat component is a section that at least attempts to explain and graphically illustrate some of the concepts and terms scientists have devised to torture journalists and confuse the public (ask here or DM me if you need help w any)

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH Probably the key figure is 1.5. It shows recent (measurements in purple) and future (model predictions) changes in key characteristics eg decreases in O2 (a bad thing bc like us fishes and other marine animals breath it):

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH Predictions are based on "Representative Concentration Pathway" 2.6 (optimistic!) and 8.5 (not so much) *Im surprised they are using these esp 8.5 given all the complaining about them/it there's been from modelers and some economists (at least on twitter)

skepticalscience.com/rcp.php

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH Regardless, this in a nutshell (if a very dense one) is why we scientists are so totally freaked out: it indicates the changes in the environment (caused by GH gas emissions) are going to get much, much worse if we don't get our shit together.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH The projected changes in arctic sea ice, O2, temperature and sea level are staggering.

Even under RCP 2.6 (rapid reduction in CO2) we lose much more arctic sea ice. Under 8.5 the losses would be devastating for that massive and critical marine ecosystem (and for polar bears):

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH All other parts of the cryosphere would lose massive amounts of ice.

Again note that losses are substantially reduced w aggressive climate policy (RCP 2.6) = we have agency! Its not a lost cause. How quickly we act makes a big difference!

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH The graphic links sea level rise with land ice melting & seawater heating (and thus thermal expansion).

Interestingly, the net SLR is projected out to 2300, which I think is really important bc it will take centuries for the ocean to come into equilibrium (=will keep rising)

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH Even under the most optimistic scenario (think we put @AOC and @JayInslee in charge of everything) we still see another ~1+ feet of SLR by the end of the century & 3 feet by 2300.

And 2-5 ft under the Trumpy scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2100 and 7-17 ft (~2.5-5.5 m) by 2100!!! 😪

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee Side note: This is one of most dense, technical documents Ive read. IMO the approach 4 the US NCA is much better. Also much in the SROCCC is a rehash; like NCA I think it would be better if IPCC started only including new info in periodic reports.

eg; nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/9/

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee Predictions in the SROCCC include indications of confidence scientists (a very conservative lot in this regard) have in them.

One new-ish conclusion is the staggering changes we r seeing & will see in the near future in the Arctic:

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee "Future climate-induced changes in the polar oceans, sea ice, snow and permafrost will drive habitat and biome shifts, with associated changes in the ranges and abundance of ecologically-important species"

This is bc the Arctic is one of the fastest warming parts of the earth.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee Chapter 3 material on the arctic and antarctic is staggering for its depth, detail, and frightening forecasts. @dwallacewells could write his next non-fiction horror piece based on it.

There's just an incredible amount of basic info about how these systems work:

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee The big changes being observed & forecasted in polar regions including rapid warming, ice loss (on land and at sea) which = habitat loss, acidification of seawaters (reduced pH), and increased light*

*See this awesome paper on impacts of this: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee Clark et al: "Earlier sea-ice loss is likely to cause extensive regime shifts in which endemic shallow-water invertebrate communities are replaced by algae, reducing coastal biodiversity and fundamentally changing ecosystem functioning."

less ice=more light=more algae=big change

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee A few more tweets, then I need to get the kids to school. Then will read and distill the next 1000 pages or so. 🐬

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee Ocean acidification is another scary change to polar marine ecosystems. Report has good info on trends and impacts, eg to critically important plants and animals that calcify (make skeletons). Their ability to do so is affected by declining pH.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee Another: introduction of novel predators and other critters.

Warming of the arctic is enabling bad actors like king crabs to invade the antarctic, where they could annihilate defenseless marine inverts that inhabit the seafloor. eg pnas.org/content/112/42…

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee Chapter 4 is a deep dive into sea level rise and its impacts on low lying islands.

The way most people in coastal communities I visit experience climate change is via coastal erosion: everywhere I go trees, infrastructure, homes etc are falling into the sea.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee Table 4.1 includes measured SLR. The reported values (in mm pr year) are sobering. Especially for 2006-2015 (~3.5 cm / 1.4 inches during that period)

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee Fig 4.5 includes a comparison of CMIP5 climate model simulations with measured values: Its clear the model forecasts are doing a good job at predicting changes in sea level

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee Here's the same comparison, but for selected regions, comparing local model predictions to local tide gauge measurements.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee And the model predictions for three RCPs. Take home is that there is lots of variability in amount of SLR among locations and among RCPs. Again, we have agency here! We can choose which option is most appealing to us. (I vote for 2.6). Trumpy8.5 is not a foregone conclusion!

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee And if you really wanna bring out your inner @dwallacewells read the section on extreme SL events. 😱

Take home: SLR is happening, is affecting everything, and could be either pretty bad OR really, really Fing terrible depending on who's in charge in coming years. #vote

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells On to Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities

Which begins on page #712.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells OK. Im just going to be blunt. This chapter is scaring even me.

The context and causes of changes we are seeing in ocean ecosystems and populations:

1) The oceans continues to warm, and the rate is likely to have increased.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells 2) The shallow ocean is "stratifying". This means the layers are becoming more distinct, making it harder for nutrients etc to move from deeper, cooler layers up to the surface (where they are needed by marine plants like phytoplankton).

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells This stratification is caused (in part) by reductions in salinity, which makes surface waters less dense and "float" on top.

This layering / reduced exchange is likely the cause of observed reductions in phytoplankton productivity (less nutrients = lower photosynthesis)

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells Why should you care? 🤷‍♂️

Because that means less food (reduced fisheries production) and less oxygen. Half the O2 you breath comes from ocean phytoplankton.

@tbartelme

amazon.com/Every-Other-Br…

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme 3) The ocean is acidifying and 4) losing O2

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme And it all comes together in Fig 5.8 on page 752. Projected reductions in (from the top) pH, O2, nitrate (a nutrient) and primary production (NPP=the growth rate of marine plants, which are the base of the ocean food chain).

Again projections for Trumpy8.5 r WAY worse.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme Im becoming more and more worried about O2 loss and how that will affect marine creatures (ie suffocation). Here is measured reductions in seawater O2 1960-2010 (from Fig 5.9).

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme All of these changes are fundamentally disrupting ocean ecosystems.

Although some populations are adapting acclimatizing, many more are declining & going locally extinct. Some are shifting their ranges to higher latitudes=rapid changes in the composition of ocean neighborhoods.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme One rarely considered (but hugely, universally important) effect of warming is the acceleration of basically every process in the ocean. Its starts with increasing metabolic rates of fishes and inverts (as cold blooded creatures, their metabolism increases with their body temp).

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme Higher metabolism=greater caloric demand. Thus animals wanna eat more. Food is simultaneously declining (eg due to stratification mentioned above). Thus the biomass of ocean creatures will decline with warming:

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme Let that sink in: The biomass of ocean creatures will decline with warming, in some regions as much as by 20-30%.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme This is especially true in warmer areas. This will mean HUGE reductions fisheries production. Just as coastal agricultural areas are being flooded and we become more reliant on food from the sea.

Yet again note: with immediate emissions reduction we avoid the worse.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme If you are a complete oceanography nerd there is a huge section on changes to the "biological pump" etc:

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme In terms of communicating the science, Im not fan of these IPCC risk assessment graphics. Does anybody find these useful?

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme Another great graphic: 5.18 projected changes in fisheries production ("max catch potential") by 2050 under RCP8.5.

Declines of ~25% in the western Pacific, Indian ocean, and along the west coast of Africa.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme Here's the graphic:

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme And its not just people that will suffer: reductions in prey fishes are impacting marine mammals and sea birds (as they starve to death and/or reduce reproductive output), eg journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme This worries me as much as anything in ocean conservation. And its much less obvious than many effects of climate change like coral bleaching.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme Some neat graphics and examples of + and - feedbacks in chapter 5, eg:

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme Chapter 5 ends with a detailed assessment how all this impacts people, esp those in coastal communities.

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme Im surprised to see the lack of coordination among graphics in their color palettes: in this graph cool colors = reduction in fisheries production, in previous graph (5.18) it was the opposite. 🤔

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme @co2ley will kill me if I dont get all "solution-y" and express my #oceanoptimsm 🎉🐬
So, there is a fairly thorough description of some "ocean solutions" summarized in graphic 5.23

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme @co2ley Including the benefits (eg natural carbon capture and storage!) of protecting and restoring marine plants (mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses). #bluecarbon

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme @co2ley There is a sober, science-based assessment of the effectiveness of restoration, eg of coral reef habitats (that concludes the effectiveness of which is unclear at best).

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme @co2ley Are these kind of graphics impactful? Not a bad summary. But they seem busy to me. @ClimateComms

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme @co2ley Chapter 6: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks

1) "Anthropogenic climate change has increased precipitation, winds and extreme sea level events associated with a number of observed tropical- and extra-tropical cyclones (high confidence)"

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme @co2ley 2) "Extreme wave heights across the globe have increased by around 5% over the past three decades" 🌊🏄‍♀️

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme @co2ley A significant advancement in the field included in SROCCC is marine heatwaves. Which are what they sound like; extremes in ocean temperature that last days to weeks.

There are heat waves now across the north-central Pacific
marineheatwaves.org/tracker.html

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH @AOC @JayInslee @dwallacewells @tbartelme @co2ley Just as on land, ocean heat waves kill plants and animals when the temperature extreme exceeds their physiological tolerance.

Heat waves are becoming more frequent and severe and will continue to (again depending our our emissions choices):

@ClimateComms @Revkin @kate_sheppard @drvox @yayitsrob @KHayhoe @Tessa_M_Hill @unccollege @ClimateCentral @UNC @IPCC_CH The thread seems to have broken here.

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