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One place where I think our estimates may be deceived right now--to Sanders favor--is in Dallas, Tex.
The needle currently thinks there are few votes left, since it's characterized as 99% counted, but the turnout seems far, far short of where it ought to land
And now one place where we're getting data that's too good for Biden is in Brownsville, where the count has Biden+15k votes with 100 percent counted, which I very seriously doubt
I think that the two errors--the 99% counted in Dallas; the Brownsville Biden+15k--largely cancel out?
But there are real pockets of certain/potential Bernie strength yet to report in Austin, San Antonio and south Texas. Not over until we see more Election Day vote there
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Sanders avoided a knockout blow, but the results were good enough for Biden that Sanders now needs a decisive turn in the race, this time to his favor, to prevent Biden from claiming an insurmountable lead. Sound familiar? nytimes.com/2020/03/04/ups…
Now that I'm awake, maybe one simple way to think about it is like this:
The early vote saved Sanders from a Clinton-Sanders '16 Super Tuesday style wipe out.
But going forward, Clinton-Sanders Super Tues. type delegate margins would quickly put this out of play
And unlike '16, the map might get worse for Bernie rather than better, now that his strength is so concentrated among Latino voters. With so much of the Southwest in, his list of really great states starts getting pretty thin
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
We're going to start getting early vote in California--here, ballots received well ahead of the election--and I think you can expect it to be pretty bad for both Bernie and Biden compared to whatever they finish
These are older voters, and therefore tough for Sanders.
OTOH, they're early voters, and therefore tough for Biden.
Wouldn't shock me if you started off with something crazy like Sanders narrowly leading Bloomberg and Biden back in fourth
After the early vote, you start getting the Election Day vote. This is demographically good for Bernie in California, but it also reflects the post-Biden surge.
So both should earn a higher vote share, as you get the two-way race we've seen elsewhere in the country
Read 6 tweets
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
One interesting group is, for lack of a better term, the Romney-Clinton vote, which probably broke big for Biden in SC. They're a big factor in open Southern primaries, but Biden will face more competition now with Bloomberg in the race. Is it a vote that doesn't abandon him?
In Super Tues. polling data that I've seen, Bloomberg had a clear advantage, at least heading into SC, among Dem primary voters who last voted in a GOP primary. That's a big group in TX/VA; it'll be an interesting test of where these voters stand in their transition to the Dems
If these voters broke for Biden, and I'd guess the ones who feel pretty comfortable voting Dem at this point would do so, then you'd see Biden quickly pick up support in the affluent areas around DC/DAL/HOU/Nashville, etc.
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