My (irrelevant) view is many are using too narrow a range of likely outcomes with too high levels of certainty.
There’s massive path dependency involved because we don’t know how it will evolve and more importantly how people’s behaviors will change, by choice or even by force.
There’s massive path dependency involved because we don’t know how it will evolve and more importantly how people’s behaviors will change, by choice or even by force.
It seems likely people are going to act differently. And the 2nd order effects of those behavioral changes may cascade.
I don’t know if we’ll have a recession, a meaningful slowdown, or just minor impacts.
But I find the risk assessment more challenging than anything post GFC
I don’t know if we’ll have a recession, a meaningful slowdown, or just minor impacts.
But I find the risk assessment more challenging than anything post GFC
Maybe this quickly passes and the market is much higher in 3-4 months and I look silly. But my view is probabilistically handicapping the outcomes here calls for a large dose of humility.
