My Authors
Read all threads
My (irrelevant) view is many are using too narrow a range of likely outcomes with too high levels of certainty.

There’s massive path dependency involved because we don’t know how it will evolve and more importantly how people’s behaviors will change, by choice or even by force.
It seems likely people are going to act differently. And the 2nd order effects of those behavioral changes may cascade.

I don’t know if we’ll have a recession, a meaningful slowdown, or just minor impacts.

But I find the risk assessment more challenging than anything post GFC
Maybe this quickly passes and the market is much higher in 3-4 months and I look silly. But my view is probabilistically handicapping the outcomes here calls for a large dose of humility.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with modest proposal

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!