This is a key flaw in the administration's logic.
If you want to speculate that CFR is really 0.1-1%, then based on 13 confirmed US fatalities we'd expect to have between 1300-13,000 domestic cases already. Iran/Italy territory.
That's...not what they've been saying.
If you want to speculate that CFR is really 0.1-1%, then based on 13 confirmed US fatalities we'd expect to have between 1300-13,000 domestic cases already. Iran/Italy territory.
That's...not what they've been saying.
You can argue we have very few total cases, or that CFR is far far lower than the 3.4% figure from WHO, but not really both.
If you take S. Korea as a decent proxy for US care standards, with their ~0.6% CFR, then 13 deaths = ~2167 cases. That's probably the right ballpark.
If you take S. Korea as a decent proxy for US care standards, with their ~0.6% CFR, then 13 deaths = ~2167 cases. That's probably the right ballpark.
And that in turn would mean we're still missing a large proportion of actively spreading individuals out in the community. Which given the news of new cases in new places each day - we clearly are.
Which is why - TESTING, DAMMIT
Which is why - TESTING, DAMMIT
