Thread by @MaryRobinette

I've spent the past couple of days talking to experts ranging from epidemiologists to lawyers to event organizers and there are some things that I think are helpful to understand about why some events are being canceled and why some aren't.

sfwa.org/2020/03/11/a-m…

It'll take another month of data before we start to have a solid picture of how bad COVID-19 really is. Anything that's within the next three weeks, and in person, should probably cancel to be prudent.

So why are some still going ahead?

Speaking broadly...Insurance won't cover cancellations unless you demonstrate that you could not have held the event.

A conference I was scheduled to attend at the end of March, responsibly canceled. They lost $100k.

Not in revenue, mind you. They still had to pay the bill.

Hotels and conference centers can't survive tens of millions of dollars of cancellations. So they can't afford to allow refunds to groups.

Unless... unless a government declares assemblies illegal, in which case it becomes impossible to host the event and insurance kicks in.

So what people hosting events in the next three weeks are holding out for is the desperate hope that large gatherings will be declared illegal. If they cancel before that, they're on the hook.

After that, they're clear. The hotel is clear. (Insurance companies are screwed.)

Even with that, there will ripple effects among vendors that won't be covered. The servers. The people who supply linens. The banner makers.

So if you're more than four weeks out, waiting to cancel is prudent for the economic health of your vendors, organization, and partners.

If you're an attendee, the urge is going to be to ask for a refund right now because you're planning on not attending. Do you need it?

I remind you of the group that lost $100k. There are non-profits that will never recover from that loss because their insurance won't cover it.

The Nebula Conference is about 80 days away. We're holding steady, planning for a spectrum of outcomes ranging from:

Good: The understanding of COVID-19 is such that holding the conference is safe.
Bad: In May, COVID-19 is bad enough that gatherings are declared illegal.

SFWA is okay. We have time to plan.

But a group that is in the three to four-week window? Especially if they're a non-profit...understand why they're holding out. This might economically break a group you love.

The only saving throw they've got is hoping to be declared illegal.

And to be clear, this isn't going to apply to everyone. But as a broad, general overview, this is part of what convention and event planners are weighing.

Meanwhile, wash your hands, stay home if you're sick, and try not to panic. Or at least not make decisions from panic.

Update: The California governor "recommends" canceling events of over 250 through the End of March.

"The advisory, which does not carry the force of law..."

I wish he would show some spine and make it binding.

latimes.com/california/sto…