Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #qt

Most recents (24)

Thoughts on the #BankofEngland intervention… 🧵

The Bank will carry out *temporary* purchases of long-dated UK government bonds from 28 Sep to 14 Oct to stabilise the market.

The purchases ‘will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary’, but are *strictly time-limited*…
At the same time, the #MPC is pausing the start of active #QT (i.e. selling bonds bought under #QE) until 31 Oct.

This might be reviewed depending on economic and market conditions, but the annual target of £80bn of sales is unchanged, so this is a delay rather than a U-turn...
In my view, this is a sensible and proportionate response.

Of course, it would be better if this hadn’t been necessary, but the aim was to lower gilt yields and the intervention has worked: 30-year yields have fallen by one full percentage point (!) today...
Read 8 tweets
CDC debate has begun. Right out of the gate LNP using racist tropes and ignoring the harm CDC has caused to women and children in CDC regions - including rising DV ( 20.7% and 30% in two regions) and suicides.
Even using FALSE INFORMATION of #CSA AGAIN, proven lies.
Every voice against the CDC from Communities impacted is on record and senate Hansard. Drop in numbers of people attending SuC, is a result of over 1200 people LEAVING #Ceduna.
The LNP are again using the same lies and misdirection they used to roll out NTER.
They are cherry picking from the less than 5% of people who support the CDC. 71% of people are worse off, and 14.4% no change in SIX years.
Read 31 tweets
Peter Dutton misled #QT today.
1. The CDC program was NEVER targeted. No one on a card today has EVER been assessed as having an alcohol prob.
2. The 21% gambling reduction he claimed was FALSE as the Eval found 98% of ppl NEVER GAMBLED.
#auspol @PeterDutton_MP @AmandaRishworth
So @PeterDutton_MP some basic math - 21% of 2% of ppl is just 0.0042%. 🫢

3. The eval showed that DV has risen in the CDC trial regions SINCE the CDC program rolled outs incl a 20.7% rise in DV in EKimberly region and a 30% increase in DV victims accessing shelters in Ceduna.
Here is today's #qt rebuttle by the PM and Minister.
Here is the link to the Adelaide Quantitative summary report:…

Read 8 tweets

In this little story I summarize how Covid, Supply Chain, Debt, Wages, Inflation, a Eecession, Insolvency and an aging population come together to form a common solution: Crypto Assets

1) ...
So much is happening in the world. War, High #inflation, Covid, #recession, insolvancy, a debt bubble and Supply Chain problems.

All of these causes have a large impact on the world economy and therefore on your portfolio, which makes it important to understand what is going on. Image
The main consequence:

An nation on the verge of collapse and a debt bubble around the world.

As Ray Dalio said

'A nation in its last effort of strength is hugely in debt, there are internal wealth disparities and printing money seems to many to be the solution, but it is not'. Image
Read 25 tweets
I’m so glad to announce that the computational model I developed during my PhD is now a stand-alone software and has recently passed the strict review process of my favorite journal, Journal of #OpenSource Software 🤩…
Let me explain it a bit 👇
BioDeg is an #opensource cross-platform software written in #FreeFEM, C++, and Python for modeling the degradation of metallic #biomaterials and simulating the #biodegradation behavior of medical devices and #implants in #corrosion experiments.
The necessity and the details of the computational model of #biodegradable materials, which does the main simulation behind the scene, are already discussed in this Twitter thread, so make sure to have a look at it if you like to know more 🤓

Read 10 tweets
rule breaking

rampant corruption in PPE contracts

entire Church of England condemning Nazi style deportations

Queens Council writing to PM demanding dialling down of rhetoric

tory cronies appointed to public bodies

upper house crammed with #Brexshit sycophants

=Germany 1938

Elections Bill

Policing Act

Right to Protest removed

Tory ex pat donations allowed from abroad

NHS reform Bill

Secrecy Act - journalists threatened with 14 yrs in prison for reporting negatively about tories

this govt is not conservative - I keep saying this!

it is a hard-right, nationalist, authoritarian dictatorship

now ministers are openly talking about expelling CofE bishops from the House of Lords for speaking out against Rwanda deportations Image
Read 157 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review


🐻 market rallies are wicked, like a 🕷 luring the 🪰 into her 🕸

Sentiment surveys do not tell the full story; options pricing does with $SPY IVOL/RVOL at -40 with the ETF +6.6% in 6 days, right into the 😬 of #QT

Indeed, #complacency reigns supreme

But on 6/01, the FOMC will begin to 🎬 the balance sheet by 47.5B per month

💦 is already ↘️ -50B from 4/13/22 high as operation 👊🥣 removal gets under way

Chart: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5/25/22

Big winners on the week, vol 🌊 sellers took advantage

$VIX 25.72 -371 BPS
$VXN 32.00 -418 BPS
$RVX 30.76 -430 BPS
$VSTOXX 25.66 -300 BPS
$VXEEM 24.72 -233 BPS

Chart: $VVIX - the vol of vol fell to a pre-pandemic low
Read 18 tweets

After yesterday's correction, NIFTY PE & PB have gone down for our Algo to show one can invest 60% in Equity. In such a scenario, we would recommend out of ₹100, ₹60 can now be invested in Equity and balance 40% in Liquid.
We then do value STP of 3X over next few months till markets remain in Yellow Zone. If markets collapse to Green Zone, balance amount in liquid can be deployed in Equity immediately.

What is 3X?

60 lacs/60 mths = 1 lac is 1X
3X in this case is 3 lacs
But please remember, that after 60% investment in Equity if markets correct, for some time that portion will show negative returns for a short while. That should not perturb us as these investments would have been done at reasonable valuation Zone.
Read 7 tweets

Kunkel review, backgrounding by PMO staff & FOIs

"Advice that was sought prior to a review being undertaken—how that could conceivably impinge upon people's privacy just seems like an odd argument to make, doesn't it?"
I know about this, as it was my FOI being discussed.

First a recap.

Morrison was asked a Q about backgrounding by his media team in #QT last year (25 March 2021).
His response was to get his Chief of Staff, John Kunkel, to do a review...taking account of Dept of Finance advice.

Kunkel, made great play of Finance's advice (see extract) in his "report" - a 4 page letter to Morrison.
Read 12 tweets
We are now entering the second stage of the busting of the #everythingbubble.

On Mar 2, 2020 I laid out some thoughts for the sequence of events during and post the COVID shock. Time for a short retrospective and some ideas what may happen next.
The the initial market reaction to the pandemic and the lockdown was highly deflationary.
The easy part was predicting that monetary and fiscal policy would throw everything they had onto the “deflationary crisis”. Pointing out the chance of severe price inflation and the opportunities that lay in investing in commodities definitely was way more outlandish.
Read 18 tweets
Hello Monday!

Big week

Not only are the Ides upon us, but we have both #FOMC and #OPEX to process.

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Mixed 👜 in Asia as 🇨🇳 and 🇭🇰 🔒 ↘️ 🦠

$NIKK 25308 +0.6%
$SSEC 3224 -2.6% 🇨🇳
$TWII 17263 unch
$HSI 19541 -4.95% 🇭🇰
$KOSPI 2646 -0.6%
$IDX 6952 +0.45%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7149 +1.2%

India ↗️
$BSE 59215 +1.2%
Europe opens with a ↗️ bias

$DAX 13872 +1.8%
$FTSE 7150 -0.05%
$CAC 6288 +0.45%
$AEX 672 -0.45%
$IBEX 8264 +1.5%
$MIB 23313 +1.2%
$SMI 11517 +0.2%
$MOEX closed for 💥🪆
Read 11 tweets
🧵 Never Assume

In 40 yrs in the ADF as a military officer, commander & strategic planner I had the duty of briefing a wide range of politicians across the political divide. Mostly those to the Govt of the day. And at the direction of the Govt:the Opposition

#auspol #qt 1/21
Those duties also included at times accompanying politicians (with a Service Chief) to overseas operations, writing briefs for #qt accompanying the Chief to Senate Estimates, preparing cabinet submissions and taking the calls of ‘staffers’

The ADF is by convention absolutely apolitical. It serves the nation via the Government. (My simplified definition)

The ADF (&Defence) prepare ‘options’ for the Government and remain prepared for a wide range of contingencies

The Govt directs the ADF

The CDF commands

Read 22 tweets
Jenny Morrison,

I don't accept ur excuses/hindsight about your Hawaiian holiday in Dec 2019 or that being PM is '24/7' or it's not OK for PMs to take holidays

Here are my reasons:

a) Scott never advised the Australian public he was going on leave in Dec 2019
#auspol #qt
b) Scott never advised the Leader of the Opposition he was going on holidays in Dec 2019 until he was en-route to Hawaii. Scott lied to Parliament about this Nov 21

c) Scott never advised the Australian ppl who the Acting PM would be while he was away in Dec 2019
#auspol #qt
d) When questioned, Scott's office denied he was on holidays at the time

e) In 2019 the Morrison family took 3 holidays:
South Coast NSW Jan 2019
Fiji June 2019
Hawaii Dec 2019

3 holidays in 1 year is not '24/7' nor supports the claim PMs can't take leave
#auspol #qt
Read 6 tweets
Pecuniary Interests Update

Communications Minister Paul Fletcher went to the Aus Open Men's Final 2022

Channel 9 paid

(they also paid for Josh Frydenberg to W's F)

I can't wait to see Ch9's election coverage, it'll be as balanced as a North Korean news bulletin
#auspol #qt ImageImage
Dan Tehan went too, Tennis Australia paid

I bet come Budget time, Tennis Australia will be putting their hand out for more funding.

Here's a business tip TA: Save money, don't give away seats to politicians who can afford to pay their own way.
#auspol #qt Image
Angus Taylor invested in a $2 million pastoral company.

McLaughlin River Holdings, remember that name, should be cropping up on Austender or GrantConnect in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1....

I wonder what type of grass it has?

Any imaginary water?
#auspol #qt Image
Read 4 tweets
looks like the prime minister has done a campaign event in the parliament making extremely high profile comments on a forthcoming criminal trial before the ACT Supreme Court.
he directly apologised to the [alleged] victim of a serious sexual offence for the terrible things that [are alleged to have] happened to her in the parliament. Image
verbatim, he is “sorry to Miss Higgins for the terrible things that took place here”.
Read 5 tweets
1. @SenatorRennick not up for re-election. LNP chose him, a stain on the Party & more proof it swung hard fundamentalist right since the merger &’crushed its liberal wing.

Ground zero for liberalism’s fightback is @SuzieHolt4Groom’s #IndependentsDay campaign at #GroomVotes
2. LNP now expects liberals to vote for Canavan, 2 on Senate ticket - despite his pledge to do everything he can to oppose net zero by 2050.

Canavan - a mate of LNP MP, is central to the push to convert #GroomVotes from a Liberal MP in Canberra to Nats.

My @SatPaper report:- ImageImage
3. No surprise the that Canavan leads a smear campaign on @SuzieHolt4Groom kicked off by a @couriermail hit. The LNP MP says nothing.

Your move, Ms Holt.

#GroomVotes #IndependentsDay
Read 23 tweets
Rainy Sunday arvo here on the Goldie so I thought I'd have a squizz at something.

I'm furious about aged care, I'm furious with Aged Care Services & Sport Minister Richard Colbeck.

I kept asking myself "Where TF is his head at?"

That got me thinking.

#auspol #qt
When Colbeck got busted blowing-off the Senate Inquiry to go to the cricket he said he devoted equal time to both his portfolios

So, I thought I'd check to see if I could find any evidence to support that claim

Started with his Twitter. Hasn't tweeted since 2019.
#auspol #qt
I checked out his Insta

Hard to tell, maybe a few more Sports pics compared to Aged Care pics, but not obvious enough to make a song & dance about.

At a guess I'd say 60% Sport/30% Aged Care/10% general stuff

I didn't do a spreadsheet for Insta, but I did for FB
#auspol #qt
Read 8 tweets
BofA Q&A on #QT:
1. What is QT?
The reverse of QE. In QT fed allows asset holdings to decline = lower reserve & o/n RRP levels. QT can occur by allowing bonds to mature w/o reinvestment, or more actively via bond sales.
2. How does QT work?
2 impacts: a) higher level of net UST issuance to the public, b) reduces liquidity
Every $1 of UST holdings that matures, Treasury needs to increase issuance to the public by similar amount. Treasury essentially borrows from the public to pay back the Fed
3 types investors:
a)bank buys new UST, cash reserves held at Fed decline & bond balance grows -> no net change in bank's BS.
b)MMF buy new UST, no impact on a bank but impacts Fed's ON RRP. MMF substitutes RRP & buy UST ->no impact on MMF total assets but does change composition
Read 7 tweets
Hello Tuesday!

#Inflation - induced by 🚁💰direct from Uncle Sam to businesses (PPP) and individuals (UBI) and monetized by the Fed - dominates the market zeitgeist right now.

Causing dislocations and volatility, fear of #QT is creating opportunities

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia markets closed ↘️

$NIKK 28222 -0.9%
$SSEC 3567 -0.75%
$TWII 18288 +0.3% ⏪
$HSI 23739 -0.05%
$KOPSI 2927 unch
$IDX 6648 -0.65%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7390 -0.75%

India ↗️
$BSE 60544 +0.25%
European bourses open ↗️

$DAX 15969 +1.3%
$FTSE 7490 +0.6%
$CAC 7215 +1.4% ⏪
$AEX 782 +1.15%
$IBEX 8781 +0.85%
$MIB 27618 +0.95%
$SMI 12751 +1.2% ⏪
$MOEX 5789 +1.35% 🪆

$VSTOXX 22.54 🔺
Read 11 tweets
Hello Monday!

#Inflation remains front and center as we begin the week with #CPI, Powell Testimony, and 10-year note auction all on tap for Wednesday.

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed mostly ↗️

$NIKK holiday
$SSEC 3594 +0.4%
$TWII 18239 +0.4%
$HSI 23747 +1.1%
$KOSPI 2927 -0.95% ⏪
$IDX 6991 -0.15%

Australia ↔️
$ASX 7447 -0.1%

India ↗️
$BSE 60290 +0.9%
Europe opens mostly ↘️

$DAX 15917 -0.2%
$FTSE 7448 -0.1%
$CAC 7211 -0.1%
$AEX 786 -0.35%
$IBEX 8738 -0.15%
$MIB 27670 +0.2%
$SMI 12757 -0.3% ⏪
$MOEX 3801 +0.75% 🪆
Read 11 tweets
Bach asks Stitt, Min for Workplace safety, why they allowed MPs to run the debate for so long.
She tries to blame the Libs for delaying the debate.
'Those who elect us would expect us to do whatever it takes to pass legislation to protect health & safety'. #qt
Follows up asking if there's any workplace laws that allow for 25hours of work straight.
Stitt says 'well you care about health so much you should vote for everything we present in future on this'. Yes that was the final response.
Ondarchie *asks very short question if Min for local Govt supports renaming Moreland*.
Leane *yelling for 5min about slave plantation history in the state*.
Read 4 tweets
According to Dan the appropriate response to public concerns from the Ombudsman that detention orders under the pandemic bill weren't able to be independently judicially reviewed was "well she isn't a judge". #qt
Dan once again calling every person at the front of Parliament "a violent extremist".
Within a minute then went on to say that Victoria is definitely not divided, everyone is united.
Read 6 tweets
Kick off QT in the Upper House with Davis asking the AG why they're fighting to block the release of briefings that OVIC has ruled should be released in public interest.
AG "govt is entitled to afford itself rights that others have on information but also it wasn't my decision".
Bless Symes, she might be a party loyalist like the rest but you can always tell when she doesn't actually agree with certain things.
Small Business Minister uses the words "people missing out on the rapid economic recovery that's occurring at the moment".

..what rapid recovery? Have you seen the CBD?
Read 4 tweets
731. Extraordinary stuff from Frydenberg, triumphalist Back in Black back boaster before last #ausvotes. SURELY with a record breaking deficit and covid widening income inequality the sane thing to do is delay or abolish the stage 3 tax cuts. Nope - let’s cut tax more!
732. B McKenzie demands the Clean Energy Finance Corporation finance carbon capture & storage research (a fantasy) to sustain coal mining. The mining industry hasn’t done it because it can’t be done. This is AWFUL, & she confirms there’s STILL no bloody plan!
733. The fix is in. If carbon capture and storage was viable big fossil fuel companies would have found a way by now. Yet to pretend to act on climate change the Govt INCREASES taxpayer already massive subsidies to the fossil fuel industry.

Read 219 tweets

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