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I'm staying short into the weekend. I don't use the term lightly, but "hero" is appropriate as a descriptor, IMO.
I’m now 100% convinced that the Friday move was dealers hedging gamma because they didn’t want to be caught by event risk into the weekend, not fundamental information. We are going to hit the 7% down circuit breaker on Monday, and maybe the 13% if the bill fails.
S&P futures limit down in first 15 minutes of trading.
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Quantian
@quantian1
For the last few weeks I have been saying that this is going to be a crisis worse than 2008 unless incredibly bold action is taken in an extremely short time frame. We are looking a shock to the system comparable to the Great Depression (-25% to real GDP). People are in denial.
I don't think this is being uneccesarily alarmist, I'm not trying to drive clicks to my fucking blog, anything. This is a serious assessment. We are only a few weeks of bad decisions away from a million people dead and double-digit unemployment.
By the way- I'm seeing lots of commentary to the effect of "close the markets!!" That would be a disaster. Just like in 2008, markets are the feedback loop that punishes GOP policymakers- they need to see it limit down for days to force them to act- that's why TARP was passed.
Read 3 tweets
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Quantian
@quantian1
VIX closed on Friday at 58. Adding back the futures move as a crude proxy, it should open somewhere around 68.

If you just look at the average absolute daily move over the past week, it should be at around 140. Variance sellers must be getting steamrolled now.
That's a fucking YIKES from me, fam, -55% MTD
"Our losses were so steep the software we use to display charts for client consumption couldn't draw the line properly"
Read 3 tweets
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Quantian
@quantian1
Implied 45-day default probabilities for major US airlines, calculated from option volatility (with probable pricing errors from IB, don't @ me about this):
American - 33%
Delta - 18%
United - 16%
Southwest - 11%
Methodology:

Remember, these are not 1-year prices that I have annualized to. These are six week prices.
Better pricing on United options gives 22%, not 16%. That makes more sense, now it matches the IV ordering of the four (AAL 210%, UAL 170%, DAL 130%, LUV 110%).
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Shaun Lawson
@shaunjlawson
Incidentally, just on this: the 'toxicity' and 'intolerance' 🙄🙄🙄

I have the best followers in the world. The best. And you know what so many of them have in common? Kindness, compassion and empathy. Some of them naturally; others because of their own horrendous circumstances.
Not only have many of them experienced - and are continuing to experience - almost unimaginable levels of cruelty, hardship and adversity... but over the last few years, they've been demonised by many of those in the party that's supposed to HELP them.
That is what makes me angry about the Labour right. That is why so many of us were disgusted at Tom Watson sabotaging his own side, a bunch of rotters jumping to Change UK, or those calling for Yvette Cooper, architect of the Work Capability Assessment, to replace Corbyn.
Read 18 tweets
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Ms.Liz🦎
@lizzah_83
@JuliansRum After what that lawyer said today, I think there will be multiple articles of impeachment tucked under Nanshy’s tush...until they’re forced out from under her, or she’s removed from power and the pages fall to the floor as she’s dragged out of the Speakers office.
@JuliansRum Everyone should follow @HowleyReporter — the work he’s doing to expose the Pelosi’s is amazing. Her corruption is coming to light for all to see. She is screwed.
@JuliansRum @HowleyReporter #QAnon
Read 4 tweets
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File411
@File411
Remember and say their names...
Joyce Fienberg, 75
Richard Gottfried, 65
Rose Mallinger, 97
Jerry Rabinowitz, 66
Cecil Rosenthal, 59
David Rosenthal, 54
Bernice Simon, 84
Sylvan Simon, 86
Daniel Stein, 71
Melvin Wax, 88
Irving Younger, 69
Moreover Attorney General Barr is unwilling to use the term “domestic terrorism”.
He issued this memo and directive of Mental Health professionals.
While I applaud this move, it is deeply problematic he refuses to say “acts of domestic terrorism”

drive.google.com/file/d/1oIG1qt…
Clarification Barr’s memo:
“ability to identify, assess, and engage potential mass shooters before they strike.”
He implies the mental health component results FBI difficulty in preventing mass shootings
Again the new” initiative is the right move
I take umbrage to the subtext
Read 3 tweets
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ClassActionLawsuit
@NoneDared
. @potuspress has identified over 300 potential defendants in a class action lawsuit, but all of them will need to be validated and evidence located and stored for use in a case. We'll need to obtain the identities of corporate officers of each of the major news organizations
that were overtly active in pushing the disinformation and fraud as well as specific reporters and "journalists" (use the term lightly) that wrote articles or op-eds that parroted the talking points of the misinformation.
I've registered a domain - classactionlawsuit.group that will be used to launch the initial publicizing of the effort and allow for potential plaintiffs to at least sign up for interest. Although it's premature to consider how the group can be organized, those things are being
Read 13 tweets

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