Some very random thoughts on most recent developments here in Austria and in financial markets...
1. I am not scared of #COVIDー19 but rather the disastrous consequences for businesses, capital markets and employees...
2. Although monetary and fiscal stimulus will be huge, it won’t be enough.... we'll soon see who has been swimming naked...People do not see the consequences for illiquid investments like VC, real estate, art,...yet! VaR risk models will come back and hit us like boomerangs.
3. This week will be decisive, but I think it’s perfectly likely that markets will be closed.
4. I truly like the feeling of social cohesion and confidence at the moment. People do accept the current situation and want to make the best out of it…I am not so sure if in 2 weeks we won’t see riots on the streets, esp. if people lose their jobs, can't pay their mortgages etc
5. MMT, QE for the People, Helicopter Money, Universal Basic Income have already been recommended before. Now is the perfect excuse to finally implement it...Problem is that people will get used to it very quickly and hat it will be almost impossible to discontinue the drug.
6. What is seen and was it not seen: I wonder if anyone takes into account how many people will die actually because of the measures that are taken: surgeries that are postponed, domestic violence, people eating crap, drinking too much and doing drugs bc of their boredom etc.
7. It is truly scary what people accept in times of crisis. Fear is the ultimate enemy of liberty.
8. I am pretty sure that Trump will not be re-elected...very poor crisis management and communication.
9. Everybody telling us that we will not necessarily enter a recession or just a brief one, is either government employed, dumb or a liar. Big question is if the recession will become a depression. Markets discount first the worst scenario and then wait to see how things unfold
10. It is obvious that this crisis is solved with even more interventionism and capitalism will be marginalized even further.
11. It is fascinating and frightening how fast things develop. A few days ago my biggest concern was that the Vienna City Marathon would be cancelled. Now you are worried about completely different, much more elementary things...
12. Central banks now have a confidence issue. Markets realize that the emperor has no clothes…Almost exactly as described in our book: amazon.com/-/de/dp/390263…
13. As Howard Marks brilliantly said: All great investments begin in discomfort. One thing we know is that there’s great discomfort today.” We will see fantastic buying opportunities. Seems a bit too early yet. But update your watchlists&study balance sheets and CF statements NOW
14. Disasters and crises bring out the very best and the very worst in people.
14. Have faith, buy gold
Tweetstorm over and out .-) back to work!
15. EUROBONDS will be introduced soon
