OF COURSE @amyklobuchar is top of @JoeBiden VEEP list. If you're under the mistaken impression that Ds flipped the House via suburban Rep voters, you'd pick A.K. & ignore ideological & racial diversity.
Which is why someone should tell Team Biden: newrepublic.com/article/156402…
Which is why someone should tell Team Biden: newrepublic.com/article/156402…
That said, turnout IS going to surge among every demographic group in the Dem coalition, whether the VEEP is @amyklobuchar OR @staceyabrams. BC of the Trump Effect, turnout is going up. Biden can win under multiple VP scenarios. Various VPs are about risk mitigation.
What's most risky? Well, according to my forecasting work, Biden is a lock on winning pure Is, even before recession and COVID19 blowback (which now makes that definite). Also according to my research GOP turnout is going to increase over 2016- w white working class breaking at
least as strongly in favor of Trump as it did in 2016 and more likely, stronger. This happens under a @Biden/@amyklobuchar ticket fairly equally to a Biden/@staceyabrams or @KamalaHarris type ticket- bc what is driving the voting behavior of white, working class voters is larger
one election cycle & one ticket & just as college educated voters are realigning to the Ds, white working class voters are realigning to the Rs. Outside of Scranton proper- Biden is gonna get his ass kicked. With Indies breaking in their favor, the two things that Ds have to fear
this cycle are getting out-voted by a Rep base that is on 🔥 in their devotion to Trump & the extreme levels of party unity within the GOP. Mainstream Ds (& their consultants) are counting on this recession to produce an electorate we haven't seen in the polarized era.
One in which moderate Rs desert their own party. They counted on that happening in 2016 too, and got left w egg on their faces. Like I said in an earlier thread, *maybe* recession can do it, but I am doubtful & I sure as hell wouldn't design my electoral strategy around it.
ESPECIALLY bc....I don't have to. That's right! Dems can win the presidency on the backs of their own coalition of voters (Ds and Is) in the Electoral College provided young people and voters of color improve their 2016 turnout AND (and pay attention here, bc this part is really
important) don't end up casting protest ballots. Less will be inclined to in 2020 than in 2016 bc atmospherically, 2020 is a whole diff ball game. But unlike in 2016, in 2020, there will be a multimillion effort to get them to do it brought to bear on it by the Trump campaign
& RNC, for whom encouraging 3rd party balloting & voter suppression (both via institutional suppression and "self-suppression" propaganda be necessity will play a major role in the 2020 strategy. Thus, one might ask, do various VP scenarios help or hurt the GOP in these sabotage
efforts? And the answer to that is, of course, yes. Via only white candidates Democrats leave themselves open to the RNC's efforts target young, black voters w suppressive propaganda about Biden's old history w things like the crime bill- a technique we learned the Russians used
against HRC in 2016. Via only male candidates former Warren supporters can be targeted w propaganda about sexism. And via only moderate candidates (and this one is by far the easiest pickings bc progressives have a echo chamber alt media bubble w larger audience shares than
outlets like MSNBC) the Rs can target disaffected Sanders supporters w propaganda, misinformation, and disinformation that plays on these voters heightened suspicions about the DNC, about Biden, and in general, about the party's mainstream. With a liberal (note, liberal, not a
radical) VP the Biden campaign would neutralize most of this threat and remain vulnerable only among the most ardent "Bernie & Bust" types. This is not an insignificant amount of the electorate. On its own, it had disruptive potential. The risk of defection of ardent progressives
is absolutely the most serious risk Democrats have to navigate in this landscape which is why I said a balanced ideology ticket approach does more for risk mitigation. But yeah, if you think the only pathway to winning the general requires converting Rs AK is where you're going.
