Thread by @GaryBurgessCI

Jersey government coronavirus press conference is now underway. Highlights in this thread...

•Public health response informed by statistical modelling
•Aim to flatten curve and slow spread of virus to reduce impact on health service
•Quick communication key

#coronavirusJsy

•Shielding elderly and vulnerable the priority
•Statistical modelling being used to come up with worst case scenario that all else flows from
•We’re reminded that model is not a crystal ball, rather a good idea of how different measures will make a difference

•Current model estimates 50% in Jersey will get virus, of which 4% will need hospital, all within a 10 week period
•Without action hospital wouldn’t be able to cope with cases
•Five key measures being looked at...

Model has looked at effect of...
•Closure of schools for 8-12 weeks
•Self-isolation of symptomatic, as well as their households
•Social distancing

•Social distancing considered single best way of bringing down peak so hospital can cope
•Statistical model can’t compute precisely how taking multiple actions simultaneously will help
•Fair to assume multiple measures will help more

•Hygiene advice remains crucial
•Optimising care of elderly and vulnerable underway as preparatory measure
•Social distancing needs to be increased to more than just over 65s

•Mass gatherings should be reduced to allow social distancing
•Schools in Jersey will close on 23 March, earlier than Easter break - not confirmed how long for
•Home working actively encouraged

•Increasing self-isolation for those without symptoms returning from UK being considered
•25% of those hospitalised may need intensive care
•Death rate worst case estimate is 1% of 50% of those who get virus, ie circa 500 people

•Limited availability of tests means those with risk factors for virus are being given priority
•Preference is to do more tests but simply not possible as labs in UK can’t cope with volume
•Bed capacity outside hospital being looked at in case numbers are worse than predicted

•Overdale and other health facilities and nursing homes could be used as extra hospital sites
•Health workers may change disciplines when needed, eg physios become nurses
•Current focus is all about flattening curve, ie spreading out cases over longer time to reduce demand

•Jersey considers itself still in containment phase
•No observed person-to-person virus transmission so far, but it is “likely” to be happening already
•All five current positive cases originate from high risk countries

•Appeal for those asked to self-isolate to observe it and not flour guidelines (as has happened in past day)
•People of Jersey must work with authorities for measures to work
•School closure, initially, will be to end of Easter break but could be extended

•Emergency legislation to force people to adhere to current self-isolate guidelines being considered
•Preference is for population to understand why actions are needed and for all to heed them
•Social distancing for whole population will be introduced “in next few days”

•Reminder that social distancing does not mean isolation
•Steady hardening of advice is aimed at taking population with government, rather than implementing all at once
•Comparing Jersey plan with other jurisdictions “not helpful”

•Hospital has c250 beds available
•”Aggressive optimisation” of 17,500 vulnerable in community underway
•Ends with reminder that this is a community effort

Ends