A lot of people have been asking the same question: why do things seem so calm in Japan over the virus when in the West, people are losing their minds? Does Japan have it under control, or is it sweeping things under the carpet? We took a look (1/)
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Japan has had the virus much longer than most countries, but the rate of increase remains gradual. We've not seen an explosion in cases of the likes we saw in Italy or South Korea. 2/ 
Japan is undeniably testing a lot fewer people, yes. But the rate of infection is relatively low - not much higher than South Korea. Several experts we talked to, including Prof. Iwata of Diamond Princess fame, said Japan was containing the disease well 3/
Almost everyone we spoke to agreed on one thing: Japan found the cases early, and that may (may!) have saved it. Western countries, though they had more time to prepare, didn't seem to think it would affect them until it was too late. 4/
Other factors might include personal hygiene and cultural norms: no handshakes, no hugs, no kisses. Japan has an already very high rate of handwashing, something that was boosted after the H1N1 scare in 2009, and prolific cases of food poisoning (norovirus) in the 2000s 5/
A huge drop in flu cases being reported versus normal years seems to suggest that as Covid-19 spread, people were taking extra care. Japan barely had a flu season this year (this year is the red line) 6/
Masks. Do they work? Opinion still seems divided. One expert told us they "definitely" help. Others say they do nothing. But it seems likely that if everyone is wearing masks, then that would help reduce the transmission from those who are infected, but might not know it yet. 6/
Back to testing for a second. Many experts and officials in Japan don't seem to agree that "test, test, test" is the answer. “We don’t see a need to use all of our testing capacity, just because we have it,” a health ministry official said Tuesday. 7/
Many here seem to be looking at the example of Italy, which tested extensively and has seen its health system overwhelmed as a result. Some here now seem more content with their response - though whether that was by design is still unclear. 8/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
There has been suggestions that Japan is hiding or not releasing test data but I can't find anything to back this up. That said, the data online is deeply confusing and unhelpful. The national tally isn't updated often until 24 hours after the cases have been reported 9/
Things are certainly calmer here than in Europe/US. Japan likely doesn't need to take the same steps right now. But we're still in a crucial phase. We've got hanami season right in front of us, and after that, schools likely going back. Japan's not out of the woods yet. 10/end
With big thanks to @shiho_takezawa @lisadont @IsabelRTokyo @JDMayger and @JonHerskovitz who helped pull this together
Addendum - I should add, there are many experts who think the "explosion" in cases in Japan is just around the corner -- or may already have happened without Japan knowing about it. With the current testing, we can't tell, and either seems possible a/
Experts we asked said there hadn't been a spike in pneumonia deaths that would indicate such an explosion in cases had already happened. But perhaps we're not looking in the right places. And officials have said they are preparing for such a scenario. b/
Anyway, read the whole article because it's better than this Twitter summary and has the eagle eyes of @JonHerskovitz overseeing it, unlike my no-doubt typo-ridden tweets
