To reiterate, lockdown without scaled testing will not achieve desired ends.
1) Virus is invisible
2) Testing makes it visible
3) Use gradation of tests: thermometer, CT, PCR
4) Identify red & green zones, with high & low virus %
5) Let people in green zones out of lockdown
1) Virus is invisible
2) Testing makes it visible
3) Use gradation of tests: thermometer, CT, PCR
4) Identify red & green zones, with high & low virus %
5) Let people in green zones out of lockdown
Also:
- We don't know if lockdown is working to bend curve without scaled testing
- We don't know when to let people out of lockdown without testing either
- Extended lockdown causes mass unemployment/bankruptcy
Need to quickly ID red & green zones.
- We don't know if lockdown is working to bend curve without scaled testing
- We don't know when to let people out of lockdown without testing either
- Extended lockdown causes mass unemployment/bankruptcy
Need to quickly ID red & green zones.
If tests are scarce, we might use survey sampling techniques to randomly test N people in a zone and estimate the local percentage infected.
This is tricky because lower the percentage infected, the wider the error bars. Still, it's a good stopgap till testing scales.
This is tricky because lower the percentage infected, the wider the error bars. Still, it's a good stopgap till testing scales.
